Football · Finland Kolmonen · 07/08, 18:00

Prediction: Komeetat vs KeuPa

Team pages: Komeetat · KeuPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Komeetat1.75

KeuPa2.12

1X2

32% 21% 46%

Komeetat Draw KeuPa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Komeetat 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWWDLD

KeuPa 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Komeetat 1–1–4 KeuPa (6 last)

KeuPa2-1Komeetat
Komeetat1-2KeuPa
KeuPa4-2Komeetat
Komeetat0-3KeuPa
KeuPa1-1Komeetat
Komeetat1-0KeuPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Komeetat 1445 · KeuPa 1517

	Komeetat	Draw	KeuPa
Our model	32%	22%	46%
Market	33%	21%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KeuPa (rating 1445 vs 1517).
H2H favours KeuPa: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Komeetat	KeuPa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	0/14/86%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X4.33

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
05:55 +4’	2.75	4.33	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Komeetat 1–1–4 KeuPa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	KeuPa	2-1 HT 0-1	Komeetat
17/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	Komeetat	1-2 HT 0-0	KeuPa
12/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	KeuPa	4-2	Komeetat
25/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	Komeetat	0-3	KeuPa
23/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	KeuPa	1-1	Komeetat
30/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	Komeetat	1-0 HT 1-0	KeuPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JPS	12	8	4	0	39	8	28
2	FCJ Blackbird	12	6	4	2	31	20	22
3	FC Metso	11	6	3	2	30	18	21
4	JJK/2	10	5	1	4	23	22	16
5	KeuPa	11	3	5	3	21	23	14
6	Komeetat	12	3	2	7	16	23	11
7	Savon Pallo	12	3	2	7	20	30	11
8	FC Vaajakoski II	14	2	1	11	19	55	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Komeetat	KeuPa
JJK/2	1-1 D	3-5 L
FCJ Blackbird	0-2 L	0-3 L
JPS	1-1 D	0-3 L
Savon Pallo	3-2 W	2-2 D
FC Vaajakoski II	5-1 W	5-1 W
FC Metso	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Komeetat (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Komeetat

LLLLLWWDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
22/07	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
17/07	JPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
26/06	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
17/06	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	3-0	5-1	11	1	W
12/06	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
05/06	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
27/05	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
22/05	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	–	3-4	–	–	L
15/05	JPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L

KeuPa

DDDWLLLWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
24/07	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	5-1	3	1	W
19/07	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
24/06	JPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	3	0	L
17/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	2	L
12/06	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
05/06	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
20/05	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/05	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
08/05	JPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Komeetat vs KeuPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KeuPa win (46%). Probabilities: Komeetat 32%, draw 21%, KeuPa 46%.

How many goals are expected in Komeetat vs KeuPa?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Komeetat 1.75 · KeuPa 2.12), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Komeetat vs KeuPa?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.