Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/10, 01:30

Prediction: America MG vs Fortaleza

Team pages: America MG · Fortaleza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

America MG1.02

Fortaleza1.2

1X2

30% 30% 39%

America MG Draw Fortaleza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

America MG 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWLLL

Fortaleza 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DDDWDWWDWD

Head-to-head

America MG 2–4 Fortaleza (6 last)

Fortaleza0-3America MG
Fortaleza3-2America MG
Fortaleza2-1America MG
America MG1-3Fortaleza
America MG2-1Fortaleza
America MG1-2Fortaleza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America MG 1431 · Fortaleza 1546

	America MG	Draw	Fortaleza
Our model	30%	31%	39%
Market	31%	30%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1431 vs 1546).
H2H favours Fortaleza: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America MG	Fortaleza
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.67 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.41
2	2.30 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:12 +7’	3.00	3.10	2.30
06:17 +6’	3.25▲	3.10	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:29 +54’	3.67	3.41	1.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 2–0–4 Fortaleza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	0-3 HT 0-2	America MG
08/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Fortaleza	3-2 HT 1-2	America MG
01/09/23 Copa Sudamericana	Fortaleza	2-1 HT 1-0	America MG
25/08/23 Copa Sudamericana	America MG	1-3 HT 0-3	Fortaleza
20/05/23 Brazil Serie A	America MG	2-1 HT 2-1	Fortaleza
16/10/22 Brazil Serie A	America MG	1-2 HT 0-1	Fortaleza

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	31	16	8	7	35	19	56
2	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
3	Gremio Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52	27	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33	27	53
5	Fortaleza	30	14	10	6	35	26	52
6	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	46	44	48
8	Operario PR	31	13	9	9	43	41	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	42	33	47
10	Sao Bernardo SP	31	12	9	10	43	32	45
11	Cuiaba	30	10	13	7	30	25	43
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	30	39	42
13	Athletic Club MG	31	10	12	9	37	35	42
14	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	30	9	8	13	34	36	35
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30	41	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	39	45	28
19	America MG	30	4	5	21	21	50	17
20	Ponte Preta	30	3	4	23	17	64	13

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America MG	Fortaleza
EC Juventude	0-1 L	0-0 D
Sao Bernardo SP	0-2 L	1-1 D
Athletic Club MG	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America MG

LLLLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
19/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
10/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
30/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
25/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	10	0	L
21/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
08/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	3	L

Fortaleza

DDDWDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	5	0	D
20/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
01/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	11	2	D
23/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
15/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
09/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America MG vs Fortaleza?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fortaleza win (39%). Probabilities: America MG 30%, draw 30%, Fortaleza 39%.

How many goals are expected in America MG vs Fortaleza?

The model expects 2.22 goals (America MG 1.02 · Fortaleza 1.2), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in America MG vs Fortaleza?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.