Football · Brazil Serie B · 14/10, 00:30

Prediction: Athletic Club MG vs Londrina

Team pages: Athletic Club MG · Londrina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Athletic Club MG1.7

Londrina1.13

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Athletic Club MG Draw Londrina

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Club MG 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWDDLL

Londrina 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Athletic Club MG 3–1 Londrina (4 last)

Londrina2-0Athletic Club MG
Athletic Club MG2-1Londrina
Londrina2-3Athletic Club MG
Athletic Club MG2-1Londrina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Club MG 1465 · Londrina 1462

	Athletic Club MG	Draw	Londrina
Our model	50%	26%	24%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Athletic Club MG: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Club MG	Londrina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	2.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.25

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.34 ★
2	4.00 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:20 +14’	1.90	3.25	4.00
10:18 +10’	2.10▲	3.10▼	3.50▼
02:09 +6’	2.15▲	3.10	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:58 +6’	2.15	3.34	3.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Club MG 3–0–1 Londrina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	2-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Club MG
05/10/24 Brazil Serie C	Athletic Club MG	2-1 HT 1-0	Londrina
03/09/24 Brazil Serie C	Londrina	2-3 HT 1-2	Athletic Club MG
13/07/24 Brazil Serie C	Athletic Club MG	2-1 HT 1-0	Londrina

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	32	17	8	7	37	19	59
2	Vila Nova	32	17	7	8	44	31	58
3	Gremio Novorizontino	32	16	9	7	54	27	57
4	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37	27	56
5	Criciuma	32	15	8	9	33	28	53
6	Atletico GO	32	14	10	8	40	30	52
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	49	45	51
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44	34	50
9	Operario PR	32	13	9	10	44	43	48
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32	25	47
11	Goias	32	13	6	13	32	40	45
12	Sao Bernardo SP	32	12	9	11	44	34	45
13	Nautico	32	11	9	12	39	40	42
14	Ceara	32	11	9	12	35	39	42
15	Athletic Club MG	32	10	12	10	38	37	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36	38	38
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32	43	33
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40	47	28
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21	53	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	3	4	25	17	68	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Club MG	Londrina
Sport Recife	1-2 L	1-2 L
Fortaleza	2-2 D	1-2 L
EC Juventude	2-0 W	0-0 D
Vila Nova	5-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Club MG (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Club MG

LLLWLWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
02/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
27/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	0	D
19/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
13/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
09/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	3-0	5-0	2	5	W
29/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
25/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
21/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L

Londrina

LDLDLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
26/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
20/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
16/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	10	3	W
11/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	12	L
02/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
22/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
19/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Club MG vs Londrina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Club MG win (49%). Probabilities: Athletic Club MG 49%, draw 27%, Londrina 24%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Club MG vs Londrina?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Athletic Club MG 1.7 · Londrina 1.13), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club MG vs Londrina?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.