Football · Brazil Serie B · 13/10, 02:00

Prediction: Botafogo SP vs Ceara

Team pages: Botafogo SP · Ceara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Botafogo SP1.28

Ceara0.87

1X2

45% 30% 25%

Botafogo SP Draw Ceara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo SP 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLDWLW

Ceara 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDWDWW

Head-to-head

Botafogo SP 1–1–3 Ceara (5 last)

Ceara0-1Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP1-4Ceara
Ceara4-1Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP2-2Ceara
Ceara3-0Botafogo SP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1464 · Ceara 1524

	Botafogo SP	Draw	Ceara
Our model	45%	31%	24%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ceara (rating 1464 vs 1524).
H2H favours Ceara: 3-1-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo SP	Ceara
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.2	1.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 02:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.07
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.34 ★
2	3.20 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +19’	2.20	3.10	3.20
08:51 +14’	2.15▼	3.10	3.30▲
14:07 +3’	2.05▼	3.20▲	3.50▲
01:51 +21’	2.05	3.20	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:44 +164’	2.18	3.33	3.38
12:43 +86’	2.03▼	3.42▲	3.68▲
07:10 +11’	2.06▲	3.39▼	3.62▼
14:15 +52’	2.07▲	3.34▼	3.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 1–1–3 Ceara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	0-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
13/11/24 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	1-4 HT 0-1	Ceara
26/07/24 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	4-1 HT 3-1	Botafogo SP
04/11/23 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	2-2 HT 1-1	Ceara
08/07/23 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	3-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	32	17	8	7	37	19	59
2	Vila Nova	32	17	7	8	44	31	58
3	Gremio Novorizontino	32	16	9	7	54	27	57
4	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37	27	56
5	Criciuma	32	15	8	9	33	28	53
6	Atletico GO	32	14	10	8	40	30	52
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	49	45	51
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44	34	50
9	Operario PR	32	13	9	10	44	43	48
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32	25	47
11	Goias	32	13	6	13	32	40	45
12	Sao Bernardo SP	32	12	9	11	44	34	45
13	Nautico	32	11	9	12	39	40	42
14	Ceara	32	11	9	12	35	39	42
15	Athletic Club MG	32	10	12	10	38	37	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36	38	38
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32	43	33
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40	47	28
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21	53	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	3	4	25	17	68	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo SP	Ceara
Operario PR	2-1 W	2-2 D
Vila Nova	0-1 L	0-2 L
Gremio Novorizontino	1-3 L	2-1 W
Nautico	0-1 L	0-1 L
Atletico GO	0-3 L	1-2 L
Criciuma	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ceara (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

DLLLLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
30/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
19/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
15/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
10/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	8	6	L
04/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
26/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
20/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	3	D

Ceara

LWLWLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
26/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
19/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	2	8	W
13/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
10/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
05/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	9	2	W
30/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
22/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo SP vs Ceara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo SP win (45%). Probabilities: Botafogo SP 45%, draw 30%, Ceara 25%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo SP vs Ceara?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Botafogo SP 1.28 · Ceara 0.87), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Ceara?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.