Football · Brazil Serie B · 17/10, 00:30

Prediction: Ponte Preta vs Atletico GO

Team pages: Ponte Preta · Atletico GO

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Ponte Preta0.49

Atletico GO1.87

1X2

9% 20% 71%

Ponte Preta Draw Atletico GO

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-1 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Ponte Preta 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

Atletico GO 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Ponte Preta 0–2–4 Atletico GO (6 last)

Atletico GO2-0Ponte Preta
Atletico GO1-0Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta0-2Atletico GO
Atletico GO1-0Ponte Preta
Atletico GO0-0Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta0-0Atletico GO

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ponte Preta 1371 · Atletico GO 1559

	Ponte Preta	Draw	Atletico GO
Our model	8%	22%	70%
Market	10%	18%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico GO (rating 1371 vs 1559).
H2H favours Atletico GO: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ponte Preta	Atletico GO
Goals for / against (FT)	0.1 / 2.6	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.3	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.6	3.2 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

19.00

X5.00

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)2.00

2 (-1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:06 +13’	9.00	5.00	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponte Preta 0–2–4 Atletico GO

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	2-0 HT 2-0	Ponte Preta
19/03/26 Copa do Brasil	Atletico GO	1-0 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta
15/10/23 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico GO
24/06/23 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	1-0 HT 1-0	Ponte Preta
15/10/19 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	0-0 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta
17/07/19 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico GO

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	EC Juventude	33	17	9	7	39	21	60
3	Gremio Novorizontino	32	16	9	7	54	27	57
4	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37	27	56
5	Criciuma	32	15	8	9	33	28	53
6	Atletico GO	33	14	11	8	41	31	53
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	49	45	51
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	45	35	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	33	13	9	11	44	45	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
14	Ceara	32	11	9	12	35	39	42
15	Athletic Club MG	32	10	12	10	38	37	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36	38	38
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40	47	28
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21	53	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	3	4	25	17	68	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ponte Preta	Atletico GO
EC Juventude	0-2 L	2-2 D
Botafogo SP	0-2 L	3-0 W
CRB	1-0 W	1-3 L
Sport Recife	0-2 L	1-1 D
Sao Bernardo SP	0-2 L	0-1 L
America MG	0-2 L	2-0 W
Avai	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico GO (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ponte Preta

LLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
30/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
20/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	0	3	L
11/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
30/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
23/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
20/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	4	3	L

Atletico GO

WWDWWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	10	3	D
08/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-3	7	3	L
03/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
26/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
19/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
13/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
10/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
05/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
30/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
26/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ponte Preta vs Atletico GO?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico GO win (71%). Probabilities: Ponte Preta 9%, draw 20%, Atletico GO 71%.

How many goals are expected in Ponte Preta vs Atletico GO?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Ponte Preta 0.49 · Atletico GO 1.87), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs Atletico GO?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.