Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 10/09, 21:15

Prediction: Alafoss vs KF Hafnir

Team pages: Alafoss · KF Hafnir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.61Total

Alafoss2.57

KF Hafnir2.04

1X2

50% 19% 31%

Alafoss Draw KF Hafnir

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Alafoss 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLLLLW

KF Hafnir 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Alafoss 1–1–1 KF Hafnir (3 last)

KF Hafnir3-3Alafoss
Alafoss4-1KF Hafnir
Alafoss2-4KF Hafnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alafoss 1452 · KF Hafnir 1415

	Alafoss	Draw	KF Hafnir
Our model	50%	20%	31%
Market	50%	19%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.61 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alafoss	KF Hafnir
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 3.1	1.9 / 4.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.1 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.75

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.85

Under 4.51.95

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 5.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:40 +6’	1.80	4.75	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alafoss 1–1–1 KF Hafnir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Iceland 4 Deild	KF Hafnir	3-3 HT 1-3	Alafoss
18/08/24 Iceland 5 Deild	Alafoss	4-1 HT 2-1	KF Hafnir
25/07/23 Iceland 5 Deild	Alafoss	2-4 HT 0-1	KF Hafnir

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	17	16	0	1	81	18	48
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	17	14	2	1	73	23	44
3	Arborg	17	10	3	4	49	19	33
4	Ellidi	17	6	5	6	41	44	23
5	Vaengir Jupiters	17	6	4	7	41	48	22
6	KFR Hvolsvöllur	17	5	3	9	40	54	18
7	Ulfarnir	17	3	7	7	36	48	16
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	17	4	2	11	36	72	14
9	Alafoss	17	3	2	12	24	51	11
10	KF Hafnir	17	2	4	11	27	71	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alafoss	KF Hafnir
Ulfarnir	4-0 W	3-3 D
Hamar Hveragerdi	0-5 L	1-3 L
Vaengir Jupiters	0-4 L	1-3 L
KFR Hvolsvöllur	2-3 L	3-5 L
Alftanes	2-7 L	1-7 L
Ellidi	0-1 L	3-2 W
Arborg	0-4 L	2-5 L
IH Hafnarfjordur	4-2 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alafoss

DDWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	4-0	3	1	W
27/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-5	6	4	L
20/08	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
15/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-5	2-7	–	–	L
22/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
17/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
11/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-2	2	5	W
02/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	3-3	–	–	D
25/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	4	4	D

KF Hafnir

LDDLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-3	2	4	L
29/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	3-5	–	–	L
20/08	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-4	1-7	–	–	L
14/08	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-2	6	5	W
06/08	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	2-5	3	4	L
23/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	5	L
17/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
11/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	–	–	D
25/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-6	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alafoss vs KF Hafnir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alafoss win (50%). Probabilities: Alafoss 50%, draw 19%, KF Hafnir 31%.

How many goals are expected in Alafoss vs KF Hafnir?

The model expects 4.61 goals (Alafoss 2.57 · KF Hafnir 2.04), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alafoss vs KF Hafnir?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.