Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 03/09, 21:15

Prediction: KF Hafnir vs Vaengir Jupiters

Team pages: KF Hafnir · Vaengir Jupiters

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.65Total

KF Hafnir1.74

Vaengir Jupiters2.91

1X2

21% 18% 61%

KF Hafnir Draw Vaengir Jupiters

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

KF Hafnir 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLLWLL

Vaengir Jupiters 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDDLWW

Head-to-head

KF Hafnir 0–3 Vaengir Jupiters (3 last)

Vaengir Jupiters6-0KF Hafnir
KF Hafnir1-2Vaengir Jupiters
Vaengir Jupiters3-2KF Hafnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Hafnir 1428 · Vaengir Jupiters 1504

	KF Hafnir	Draw	Vaengir Jupiters
Our model	21%	18%	61%
Market	21%	18%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 4.65 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vaengir Jupiters (rating 1428 vs 1504).
H2H favours Vaengir Jupiters: 3-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Hafnir	Vaengir Jupiters
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.7 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.33

X5.00

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.98

Under 4.751.82

Diff.: 1.35 · xG: 6.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.50 → 1.48▼	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:54 +24’	4.00	5.00	1.50
06:10 +2’	4.33▲	5.00	1.45▼
07:07 +4’	4.33	5.00	1.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Hafnir 0–0–3 Vaengir Jupiters

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Vaengir Jupiters	6-0 HT 2-0	KF Hafnir
21/08/25 Iceland 4 Deild	KF Hafnir	1-2 HT 0-0	Vaengir Jupiters
19/06/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Vaengir Jupiters	3-2 HT 1-1	KF Hafnir

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	16	15	0	1	77	16	45
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	16	14	1	1	72	22	43
3	Arborg	16	10	3	3	47	15	33
4	Ellidi	16	6	4	6	40	43	22
5	Vaengir Jupiters	16	5	4	7	38	47	19
6	KFR Hvolsvöllur	16	5	3	8	38	51	18
7	Ulfarnir	16	3	7	6	36	44	16
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	16	3	2	11	33	70	11
9	KF Hafnir	16	2	4	10	26	68	10
10	Alafoss	16	2	2	12	20	51	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Hafnir	Vaengir Jupiters
KFR Hvolsvöllur	3-5 L	2-2 D
Alftanes	1-7 L	0-5 L
Ellidi	3-2 W	4-6 L
Arborg	2-5 L	3-3 D
IH Hafnarfjordur	2-5 L	1-1 D
Hamar Hveragerdi	1-3 L	0-8 L
Ulfarnir	3-3 D	4-2 W
Alafoss	3-3 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vaengir Jupiters (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KF Hafnir

DLDDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	3-5	–	–	L
20/08	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-4	1-7	–	–	L
14/08	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-2	6	5	W
06/08	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	2-5	3	4	L
23/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	5	L
17/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
11/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	–	–	D
25/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
18/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-3	4-4	10	7	D

Vaengir Jupiters

DWDLLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	4-2	8	2	W
20/08	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	4-0	6	1	W
13/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-3	0-8	–	–	L
07/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
28/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
23/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-5	4	5	L
18/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	2-4	4-6	2	3	L
02/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
25/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	6-0	9	5	W
19/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Hafnir vs Vaengir Jupiters?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vaengir Jupiters win (61%). Probabilities: KF Hafnir 21%, draw 18%, Vaengir Jupiters 61%.

How many goals are expected in KF Hafnir vs Vaengir Jupiters?

The model expects 4.65 goals (KF Hafnir 1.74 · Vaengir Jupiters 2.91), with a 54% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Hafnir vs Vaengir Jupiters?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.