Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 03/09, 22:00

Prediction: Ulfarnir vs Alafoss

Team pages: Ulfarnir · Alafoss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.53Total

Ulfarnir2.63

Alafoss1.9

1X2

54% 19% 27%

Ulfarnir Draw Alafoss

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Ulfarnir 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDDDWLDLLL

Alafoss 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Ulfarnir 2–2–1 Alafoss (5 last)

Alafoss2-2Ulfarnir
Ulfarnir2-3Alafoss
Ulfarnir1-1Alafoss
Ulfarnir7-0Alafoss
Alafoss2-4Ulfarnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ulfarnir 1456 · Alafoss 1412

	Ulfarnir	Draw	Alafoss
Our model	53%	19%	27%
Market	54%	19%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.53 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ulfarnir (rating 1456 vs 1412).
H2H favours Ulfarnir: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ulfarnir	Alafoss
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 3.2	1.4 / 3.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.4	1 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.75

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 5.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:09 +3’	1.67	4.75	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulfarnir 2–2–1 Alafoss

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Alafoss	2-2 HT 1-1	Ulfarnir
01/09/25 Iceland 5 Deild	Ulfarnir	2-3 HT 2-2	Alafoss
22/08/24 Iceland 5 Deild	Ulfarnir	1-1 HT 0-1	Alafoss
10/08/23 Iceland 5 Deild	Ulfarnir	7-0 HT 4-0	Alafoss
19/06/23 Iceland 5 Deild	Alafoss	2-4 HT 1-1	Ulfarnir

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	16	15	0	1	77	16	45
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	16	14	1	1	72	22	43
3	Arborg	16	10	3	3	47	15	33
4	Ellidi	16	6	4	6	40	43	22
5	Vaengir Jupiters	16	5	4	7	38	47	19
6	KFR Hvolsvöllur	16	5	3	8	38	51	18
7	Ulfarnir	16	3	7	6	36	44	16
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	16	3	2	11	33	70	11
9	KF Hafnir	16	2	4	10	26	68	10
10	Alafoss	16	2	2	12	20	51	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ulfarnir	Alafoss
Vaengir Jupiters	2-4 L	0-4 L
KFR Hvolsvöllur	0-2 L	2-3 L
Alftanes	0-10 L	2-7 L
Ellidi	3-3 D	0-1 L
Arborg	0-2 L	0-4 L
IH Hafnarfjordur	8-1 W	4-2 W
KF Hafnir	3-3 D	3-3 D
Hamar Hveragerdi	2-2 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Ulfarnir (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ulfarnir

DDDDWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-4	4	2	L
20/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
13/08	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-4	0-10	1	1	L
07/08	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-3	3	1	D
24/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	8-1	–	–	W
11/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	2-2	11	2	D
25/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
19/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D

Alafoss

LDDWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-5	6	4	L
20/08	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
15/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-5	2-7	–	–	L
22/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
17/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
11/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-2	2	5	W
02/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	3-3	–	–	D
25/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
18/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	1-6	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ulfarnir vs Alafoss?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ulfarnir win (54%). Probabilities: Ulfarnir 54%, draw 19%, Alafoss 27%.

How many goals are expected in Ulfarnir vs Alafoss?

The model expects 4.53 goals (Ulfarnir 2.63 · Alafoss 1.9), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ulfarnir vs Alafoss?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.