Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 03/09, 21:15

Prediction: Ellidi vs Hamar Hveragerdi

Team pages: Ellidi · Hamar Hveragerdi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.65Total

Ellidi1.73

Hamar Hveragerdi2.92

1X2

21% 17% 62%

Ellidi Draw Hamar Hveragerdi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Ellidi 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWDLDD

Hamar Hveragerdi 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Ellidi 1–2 Hamar Hveragerdi (3 last)

Hamar Hveragerdi4-0Ellidi
Hamar Hveragerdi3-1Ellidi
Ellidi3-2Hamar Hveragerdi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ellidi 1484 · Hamar Hveragerdi 1610

	Ellidi	Draw	Hamar Hveragerdi
Our model	21%	18%	62%
Market	21%	16%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 4.65 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamar Hveragerdi (rating 1484 vs 1610).
H2H favours Hamar Hveragerdi: 2-0-1.
High corners: 14.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ellidi	Hamar Hveragerdi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 3	4.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.4	2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	90/10/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	5.2 / 9.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.20

X5.50

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.98

Under 4.751.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 5.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
X	6.00 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50
2	1.28 → 1.45▲	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
05:08 +10’	6.00	6.00	1.28
06:10 +2’	4.20▼	5.50▼	1.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ellidi 1–0–2 Hamar Hveragerdi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Hamar Hveragerdi	4-0 HT 1-0	Ellidi
28/08/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Hamar Hveragerdi	3-1 HT 1-0	Ellidi
28/06/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Ellidi	3-2 HT 0-1	Hamar Hveragerdi

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	16	15	0	1	77	16	45
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	16	14	1	1	72	22	43
3	Arborg	16	10	3	3	47	15	33
4	Ellidi	16	6	4	6	40	43	22
5	Vaengir Jupiters	16	5	4	7	38	47	19
6	KFR Hvolsvöllur	16	5	3	8	38	51	18
7	Ulfarnir	16	3	7	6	36	44	16
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	16	3	2	11	33	70	11
9	KF Hafnir	16	2	4	10	26	68	10
10	Alafoss	16	2	2	12	20	51	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ellidi	Hamar Hveragerdi
Arborg	2-2 D	2-1 W
IH Hafnarfjordur	2-2 D	7-1 W
KF Hafnir	2-3 L	3-1 W
Ulfarnir	3-3 D	2-2 D
Alafoss	1-0 W	5-0 W
Vaengir Jupiters	6-4 W	8-0 W
KFR Hvolsvöllur	4-1 W	7-2 W
Alftanes	2-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hamar Hveragerdi (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ellidi

LLLWWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
20/08	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-2	5	6	D
14/08	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	2-3	9	5	L
07/08	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-3	8	1	D
22/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	4-2	6-4	6	3	W
13/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
01/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	6	L
24/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
18/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-6	5	9	L

Hamar Hveragerdi

WWDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	5-0	16	4	W
20/08	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-1	3	8	W
13/08	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	3-0	8-0	–	–	W
07/08	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	7-1	10	3	W
23/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	7-2	–	–	W
17/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
11/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
02/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-2	10	2	D
24/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
18/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	6-1	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ellidi vs Hamar Hveragerdi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hamar Hveragerdi win (62%). Probabilities: Ellidi 21%, draw 17%, Hamar Hveragerdi 62%.

How many goals are expected in Ellidi vs Hamar Hveragerdi?

The model expects 4.65 goals (Ellidi 1.73 · Hamar Hveragerdi 2.92), with a 54% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ellidi vs Hamar Hveragerdi?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.