Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 10/09, 21:15

Prediction: Vaengir Jupiters vs IH Hafnarfjordur

Team pages: Vaengir Jupiters · IH Hafnarfjordur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.84Total

Vaengir Jupiters3.23

IH Hafnarfjordur1.61

1X2

69% 14% 17%

Vaengir Jupiters Draw IH Hafnarfjordur

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

3-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Vaengir Jupiters 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDDLWWW

IH Hafnarfjordur 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLDLW

Head-to-head

Vaengir Jupiters 1–1–3 IH Hafnarfjordur (5 last)

IH Hafnarfjordur1-1Vaengir Jupiters
IH Hafnarfjordur4-1Vaengir Jupiters
Vaengir Jupiters1-2IH Hafnarfjordur
Vaengir Jupiters1-0IH Hafnarfjordur
IH Hafnarfjordur5-3Vaengir Jupiters

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vaengir Jupiters 1520 · IH Hafnarfjordur 1462

	Vaengir Jupiters	Draw	IH Hafnarfjordur
Our model	69%	16%	16%
Market	70%	13%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 4.84 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vaengir Jupiters (rating 1520 vs 1462).
H2H favours IH Hafnarfjordur: 3-1-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vaengir Jupiters	IH Hafnarfjordur
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.8	1.7 / 4.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.6 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.4	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.28

X7.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 51.82

Under 51.98

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 5.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:40 +6’	1.28	7.00	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vaengir Jupiters 1–1–3 IH Hafnarfjordur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Iceland 4 Deild	IH Hafnarfjordur	1-1 HT 1-1	Vaengir Jupiters
30/08/24 Iceland 3 Deild	IH Hafnarfjordur	4-1 HT 1-0	Vaengir Jupiters
28/06/24 Iceland 3 Deild	Vaengir Jupiters	1-2 HT 1-1	IH Hafnarfjordur
28/08/22 Iceland 3 Deild	Vaengir Jupiters	1-0 HT 1-0	IH Hafnarfjordur
24/06/22 Iceland 3 Deild	IH Hafnarfjordur	5-3 HT 2-1	Vaengir Jupiters

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	17	16	0	1	81	18	48
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	17	14	2	1	73	23	44
3	Arborg	17	10	3	4	49	19	33
4	Ellidi	17	6	5	6	41	44	23
5	Vaengir Jupiters	17	6	4	7	41	48	22
6	KFR Hvolsvöllur	17	5	3	9	40	54	18
7	Ulfarnir	17	3	7	7	36	48	16
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	17	4	2	11	36	72	14
9	Alafoss	17	3	2	12	24	51	11
10	KF Hafnir	17	2	4	11	27	71	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vaengir Jupiters	IH Hafnarfjordur
KF Hafnir	3-1 W	5-2 W
Ulfarnir	4-2 W	1-8 L
Alafoss	4-0 W	2-4 L
Hamar Hveragerdi	0-8 L	1-7 L
KFR Hvolsvöllur	2-2 D	3-2 W
Arborg	3-3 D	0-4 L
Alftanes	0-5 L	0-16 L
Ellidi	4-6 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vaengir Jupiters

WDLLDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-1	10	4	W
27/08	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	4-2	8	2	W
20/08	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	4-0	6	1	W
13/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-3	0-8	–	–	L
07/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
28/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
23/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-5	4	5	L
18/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	2-4	4-6	2	3	L
02/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
25/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	6-0	9	5	W

IH Hafnarfjordur

WDLLWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-2	5	5	W
27/08	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-4	0-16	4	3	L
20/08	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	2-2	9	6	D
14/08	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-4	2	4	L
07/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-7	3	3	L
23/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	5-2	5	5	W
17/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	1-8	–	–	L
11/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
02/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
24/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vaengir Jupiters vs IH Hafnarfjordur?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vaengir Jupiters win (69%). Probabilities: Vaengir Jupiters 69%, draw 14%, IH Hafnarfjordur 17%.

How many goals are expected in Vaengir Jupiters vs IH Hafnarfjordur?

The model expects 4.84 goals (Vaengir Jupiters 3.23 · IH Hafnarfjordur 1.61), with a 52% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vaengir Jupiters vs IH Hafnarfjordur?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.