Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 02/09, 21:15

Prediction: Arborg vs Alftanes

Team pages: Arborg · Alftanes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

Arborg2

Alftanes2.41

1X2

32% 20% 48%

Arborg Draw Alftanes

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Arborg 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDWWLD

Alftanes 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Arborg 2–2–2 Alftanes (6 last)

Alftanes1-0Arborg
Arborg2-2Alftanes
Alftanes1-4Arborg
Arborg5-0Alftanes
Alftanes1-1Arborg
Alftanes2-1Arborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arborg 1544 · Alftanes 1631

	Arborg	Draw	Alftanes
Our model	32%	20%	47%
Market	32%	20%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alftanes (rating 1544 vs 1631).
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arborg	Alftanes
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1	5.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.8	2.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.8	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.80

X4.50

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 5.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.04 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:50 +3’	2.80	4.50	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:11	2.56	4.10	2.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arborg 2–2–2 Alftanes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Alftanes	1-0 HT 1-0	Arborg
19/07/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	2-2 HT 1-1	Alftanes
15/05/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Alftanes	1-4 HT 0-2	Arborg
07/09/23 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	5-0 HT 2-0	Alftanes
06/07/23 Iceland 4 Deild	Alftanes	1-1 HT 0-0	Arborg
25/05/22 Iceland 4 Deild	Alftanes	2-1 HT 0-1	Arborg

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	16	15	0	1	77	16	45
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	16	14	1	1	72	22	43
3	Arborg	16	10	3	3	47	15	33
4	Ellidi	16	6	4	6	40	43	22
5	Vaengir Jupiters	16	5	4	7	38	47	19
6	KFR Hvolsvöllur	16	5	3	8	38	51	18
7	Ulfarnir	16	3	7	6	36	44	16
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	16	3	2	11	33	70	11
9	KF Hafnir	16	2	4	10	26	68	10
10	Alafoss	16	2	2	12	20	51	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arborg	Alftanes
Ellidi	2-2 D	5-2 W
Hamar Hveragerdi	1-2 L	1-3 L
IH Hafnarfjordur	4-0 W	16-0 W
KF Hafnir	5-2 W	7-1 W
Vaengir Jupiters	3-3 D	5-0 W
Ulfarnir	2-0 W	10-0 W
Alafoss	4-0 W	7-2 W
KFR Hvolsvöllur	4-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alftanes (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arborg

WLWWWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	12	7	D
20/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	1-2	4	8	L
14/08	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	4-0	5	4	W
06/08	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	5-2	7	4	W
28/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
24/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
17/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
02/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
23/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
18/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	6-0	7	9	W

Alftanes

WWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-0	16-0	9	3	W
20/08	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	4-0	7-1	–	–	W
13/08	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	4-0	10-0	6	1	W
08/08	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	5-1	7-2	–	–	W
23/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	5-0	3	5	W
17/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	3-1	9	3	W
11/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
01/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	5-2	7	6	W
23/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arborg vs Alftanes?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alftanes win (48%). Probabilities: Arborg 32%, draw 20%, Alftanes 48%.

How many goals are expected in Arborg vs Alftanes?

The model expects 4.41 goals (Arborg 2 · Alftanes 2.41), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Arborg vs Alftanes?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.