Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 27/08, 20:00

Prediction: Hamar Hveragerdi vs Alafoss

Team pages: Hamar Hveragerdi · Alafoss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

5.16Total

Hamar Hveragerdi3.58

Alafoss1.58

1X2

82% 10% 8%

Hamar Hveragerdi Draw Alafoss

Markets

Under 5.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

3-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Hamar Hveragerdi 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWWW

Alafoss 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Hamar Hveragerdi 3–2 Alafoss (5 last)

Alafoss1-6Hamar Hveragerdi
Alafoss5-2Hamar Hveragerdi
Alafoss1-9Hamar Hveragerdi
Alafoss2-1Hamar Hveragerdi
Hamar Hveragerdi3-1Alafoss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hamar Hveragerdi 1610 · Alafoss 1412

	Hamar Hveragerdi	Draw	Alafoss
Our model	74%	13%	13%
Market	89%	7%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 5.16 goals · Bet365 line 5.75 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 88%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamar Hveragerdi (rating 1610 vs 1412).
H2H favours Hamar Hveragerdi: 3-0-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hamar Hveragerdi	Alafoss
Goals for / against (FT)	4.5 / 0.9	1.5 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	2.1 / 0.5	1 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	90/10/0%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.6	1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.03

X13.00

223.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.90

2 (+4.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 5.751.88

Under 5.751.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 5.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	23.00 → 23.00	Bet365 23.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:18 +48’	1.03	13.00	23.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamar Hveragerdi 3–0–2 Alafoss

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Alafoss	1-6 HT 1-3	Hamar Hveragerdi
19/02/25 Iceland League Cup C	Alafoss	5-2 HT 3-1	Hamar Hveragerdi
19/05/22 Iceland 4 Deild	Alafoss	1-9 HT 0-4	Hamar Hveragerdi
02/07/19 Iceland 4 Deild	Alafoss	2-1 HT 1-1	Hamar Hveragerdi
14/05/19 Iceland 4 Deild	Hamar Hveragerdi	3-1 HT 2-0	Alafoss

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	15	14	0	1	61	16	42
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	15	13	1	1	67	22	40
3	Arborg	15	10	2	3	45	13	32
4	Ellidi	15	6	3	6	38	41	21
5	Ulfarnir	15	3	7	5	34	40	16
6	Vaengir Jupiters	15	4	4	7	34	45	16
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	15	4	3	8	33	48	15
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	15	3	2	10	33	54	11
9	KF Hafnir	15	2	4	9	23	63	10
10	Alafoss	15	2	2	11	20	46	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hamar Hveragerdi	Alafoss
Arborg	2-1 W	0-4 L
Vaengir Jupiters	8-0 W	0-4 L
IH Hafnarfjordur	7-1 W	4-2 W
KFR Hvolsvöllur	7-2 W	2-3 L
KF Hafnir	3-1 W	3-3 D
Alftanes	3-1 W	2-7 L
Ulfarnir	2-2 D	2-2 D
Ellidi	4-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Hamar Hveragerdi (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hamar Hveragerdi

WWWDWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-1	3	8	W
13/08	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	3-0	8-0	–	–	W
07/08	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	7-1	10	3	W
23/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	7-2	–	–	W
17/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
11/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
02/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-2	10	2	D
24/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
18/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	6-1	8	1	W
11/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-0	7	5	W

Alafoss

LLDDWLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
15/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-5	2-7	–	–	L
22/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
17/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
11/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-2	2	5	W
02/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	3-3	–	–	D
25/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
18/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	1-6	2	1	L
11/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-3	1-3	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hamar Hveragerdi vs Alafoss?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hamar Hveragerdi win (82%). Probabilities: Hamar Hveragerdi 82%, draw 10%, Alafoss 8%.

How many goals are expected in Hamar Hveragerdi vs Alafoss?

The model expects 5.16 goals (Hamar Hveragerdi 3.58 · Alafoss 1.58), with a 56% chance of under 5.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hamar Hveragerdi vs Alafoss?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.