Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 27/08, 21:15

Prediction: Alftanes vs IH Hafnarfjordur

Team pages: Alftanes · IH Hafnarfjordur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

5.04Total

Alftanes3.52

IH Hafnarfjordur1.52

1X2

82% 10% 8%

Alftanes Draw IH Hafnarfjordur

Markets

Under 5.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

3-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Alftanes 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWW

IH Hafnarfjordur 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alftanes 2–0 IH Hafnarfjordur (2 last)

IH Hafnarfjordur1-2Alftanes
Alftanes3-1IH Hafnarfjordur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alftanes 1627 · IH Hafnarfjordur 1440

	Alftanes	Draw	IH Hafnarfjordur
Our model	74%	13%	12%
Market	89%	7%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 5.04 goals · Bet365 line 5.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alftanes (rating 1627 vs 1440).
H2H favours Alftanes: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alftanes	IH Hafnarfjordur
Goals for / against (FT)	4.6 / 1	1.7 / 3.7
Goals for / against (HT)	2.2 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.03

X13.00

223.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.25)1.90

2 (+4.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 5.51.88

Under 5.51.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 5.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	23.00 → 23.00	Bet365 23.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +2’	1.03	13.00	23.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alftanes 2–0–0 IH Hafnarfjordur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	IH Hafnarfjordur	1-2 HT 0-1	Alftanes
05/09/18 Iceland 4 Deild	Alftanes	3-1 HT 3-0	IH Hafnarfjordur

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	15	14	0	1	61	16	42
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	15	13	1	1	67	22	40
3	Arborg	15	10	2	3	45	13	32
4	Ellidi	15	6	3	6	38	41	21
5	Ulfarnir	15	3	7	5	34	40	16
6	Vaengir Jupiters	15	4	4	7	34	45	16
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	15	4	3	8	33	48	15
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	15	3	2	10	33	54	11
9	KF Hafnir	15	2	4	9	23	63	10
10	Alafoss	15	2	2	11	20	46	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alftanes	IH Hafnarfjordur
KF Hafnir	7-1 W	5-2 W
Ulfarnir	10-0 W	1-8 L
Alafoss	7-2 W	2-4 L
Vaengir Jupiters	5-0 W	1-1 D
KFR Hvolsvöllur	3-1 W	2-1 W
Hamar Hveragerdi	1-3 L	1-7 L
Ellidi	5-2 W	2-2 D
Arborg	1-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Alftanes (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alftanes

WWWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	4-0	7-1	–	–	W
13/08	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	4-0	10-0	6	1	W
08/08	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	5-1	7-2	–	–	W
23/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	5-0	3	5	W
17/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	3-1	9	3	W
11/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
01/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	5-2	7	6	W
23/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	5-0	7	4	W

IH Hafnarfjordur

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	2-2	9	6	D
14/08	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-4	2	4	L
07/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-7	3	3	L
23/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	5-2	5	5	W
17/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	1-8	–	–	L
11/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
02/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
24/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
18/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
11/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	2-6	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alftanes vs IH Hafnarfjordur?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alftanes win (82%). Probabilities: Alftanes 82%, draw 10%, IH Hafnarfjordur 8%.

How many goals are expected in Alftanes vs IH Hafnarfjordur?

The model expects 5.04 goals (Alftanes 3.52 · IH Hafnarfjordur 1.52), with a 55% chance of under 5.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alftanes vs IH Hafnarfjordur?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.