Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 27/08, 21:15

Prediction: Vaengir Jupiters vs Ulfarnir

Team pages: Vaengir Jupiters · Ulfarnir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.63Total

Vaengir Jupiters2.44

Ulfarnir2.19

1X2

45% 19% 36%

Vaengir Jupiters Draw Ulfarnir

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Vaengir Jupiters 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLDDLW

Ulfarnir 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDDDDWLDLL

Head-to-head

Vaengir Jupiters 3–1–0 Ulfarnir (4 last)

Ulfarnir3-3Vaengir Jupiters
Ulfarnir1-3Vaengir Jupiters
Ulfarnir1-7Vaengir Jupiters
Vaengir Jupiters4-3Ulfarnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vaengir Jupiters 1500 · Ulfarnir 1469

	Vaengir Jupiters	Draw	Ulfarnir
Our model	44%	20%	35%
Market	45%	19%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.63 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vaengir Jupiters: 3-1-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vaengir Jupiters	Ulfarnir
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2.9	2.4 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.3	1.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	1.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.75

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.82

Under 4.51.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 5.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:51 +21’	2.00	4.75	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vaengir Jupiters 3–1–0 Ulfarnir

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Ulfarnir	3-3 HT 2-1	Vaengir Jupiters
21/03/25 Iceland League Cup C	Ulfarnir	1-3 HT 0-2	Vaengir Jupiters
02/07/21 Iceland 4 Deild	Ulfarnir	1-7 HT 0-2	Vaengir Jupiters
15/05/21 Iceland 4 Deild	Vaengir Jupiters	4-3 HT 3-1	Ulfarnir

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	15	14	0	1	61	16	42
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	15	13	1	1	67	22	40
3	Arborg	15	10	2	3	45	13	32
4	Ellidi	15	6	3	6	38	41	21
5	Ulfarnir	15	3	7	5	34	40	16
6	Vaengir Jupiters	15	4	4	7	34	45	16
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	15	4	3	8	33	48	15
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	15	3	2	10	33	54	11
9	KF Hafnir	15	2	4	9	23	63	10
10	Alafoss	15	2	2	11	20	46	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vaengir Jupiters	Ulfarnir
Alafoss	4-0 W	2-2 D
Hamar Hveragerdi	0-8 L	2-2 D
KFR Hvolsvöllur	2-2 D	0-2 L
Arborg	3-3 D	0-2 L
Alftanes	0-5 L	0-10 L
Ellidi	4-6 L	3-3 D
IH Hafnarfjordur	1-1 D	8-1 W
KF Hafnir	6-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vaengir Jupiters (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vaengir Jupiters

WDWDLLDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	4-0	6	1	W
13/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-3	0-8	–	–	L
07/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
28/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
23/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-5	4	5	L
18/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	2-4	4-6	2	3	L
02/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
25/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	6-0	9	5	W
19/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
11/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	3-0	3-1	5	6	W

Ulfarnir

DDDDDWLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
13/08	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-4	0-10	1	1	L
07/08	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-3	3	1	D
24/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	8-1	–	–	W
11/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	2-2	11	2	D
25/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
19/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
12/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vaengir Jupiters vs Ulfarnir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vaengir Jupiters win (45%). Probabilities: Vaengir Jupiters 45%, draw 19%, Ulfarnir 36%.

How many goals are expected in Vaengir Jupiters vs Ulfarnir?

The model expects 4.63 goals (Vaengir Jupiters 2.44 · Ulfarnir 2.19), with a 51% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vaengir Jupiters vs Ulfarnir?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.