Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 27/08, 21:15

Prediction: Ellidi vs Arborg

Team pages: Ellidi · Arborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.59Total

Ellidi1.82

Arborg2.78

1X2

24% 19% 57%

Ellidi Draw Arborg

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Ellidi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWDLD

Arborg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDWWL

Head-to-head

Ellidi 0–2–2 Arborg (4 last)

Arborg6-0Ellidi
Ellidi1-1Arborg
Arborg2-2Ellidi
Ellidi0-1Arborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ellidi 1493 · Arborg 1535

	Ellidi	Draw	Arborg
Our model	24%	19%	57%
Market	24%	19%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 4.59 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arborg (rating 1493 vs 1535).
H2H favours Arborg: 2-2-0.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ellidi	Arborg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 3	2.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.4	4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.75

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.88

Under 4.51.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +16’	3.80	4.75	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ellidi 0–2–2 Arborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	6-0 HT 5-0	Ellidi
23/07/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Ellidi	1-1 HT 0-1	Arborg
22/05/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	2-2 HT 1-2	Ellidi
22/03/23 Iceland Cup	Ellidi	0-1 HT 0-1	Arborg

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	15	14	0	1	61	16	42
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	15	13	1	1	67	22	40
3	Arborg	15	10	2	3	45	13	32
4	Ellidi	15	6	3	6	38	41	21
5	Ulfarnir	15	3	7	5	34	40	16
6	Vaengir Jupiters	15	4	4	7	34	45	16
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	15	4	3	8	33	48	15
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	15	3	2	10	33	54	11
9	KF Hafnir	15	2	4	9	23	63	10
10	Alafoss	15	2	2	11	20	46	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ellidi	Arborg
IH Hafnarfjordur	2-2 D	4-0 W
KF Hafnir	2-3 L	5-2 W
Ulfarnir	3-3 D	2-0 W
Alafoss	1-0 W	4-0 W
Vaengir Jupiters	6-4 W	3-3 D
KFR Hvolsvöllur	4-1 W	4-0 W
Alftanes	2-5 L	0-1 L
Hamar Hveragerdi	0-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Arborg (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ellidi

WLLLWWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-2	5	6	D
14/08	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	2-3	9	5	L
07/08	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-3	8	1	D
22/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	4-2	6-4	6	3	W
13/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
01/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	6	L
24/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
18/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-6	5	9	L
11/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	6-2	9	4	W

Arborg

LWLWWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	1-2	4	8	L
14/08	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	4-0	5	4	W
06/08	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	5-2	7	4	W
28/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
24/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
17/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
02/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
23/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
18/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	6-0	7	9	W
11/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-3	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ellidi vs Arborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Arborg win (57%). Probabilities: Ellidi 24%, draw 19%, Arborg 57%.

How many goals are expected in Ellidi vs Arborg?

The model expects 4.59 goals (Ellidi 1.82 · Arborg 2.78), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ellidi vs Arborg?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.