Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 20/08, 22:00

Prediction: Arborg vs Hamar Hveragerdi

Team pages: Arborg · Hamar Hveragerdi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.06Total

Arborg2.05

Hamar Hveragerdi2.01

1X2

40% 22% 38%

Arborg Draw Hamar Hveragerdi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Arborg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWDWW

Hamar Hveragerdi 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Arborg 3–3 Hamar Hveragerdi (6 last)

Hamar Hveragerdi3-0Arborg
Hamar Hveragerdi1-2Arborg
Arborg2-1Hamar Hveragerdi
Arborg3-1Hamar Hveragerdi
Hamar Hveragerdi3-1Arborg
Arborg2-3Hamar Hveragerdi

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamar Hveragerdi (rating 1558 vs 1608).
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arborg	Hamar Hveragerdi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.4	4.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 6.3	4.4 / 8.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 41.89

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.14 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:56 +3’	2.45	4.33	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:17 +2’	2.55	3.99	2.07
14:56 +4’	2.36▼	4.29▲	2.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Arborg 3–0–3 Hamar Hveragerdi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Hamar Hveragerdi	3-0 HT 2-0	Arborg
09/07/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Hamar Hveragerdi	1-2 HT 0-1	Arborg
08/05/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	2-1 HT 1-1	Hamar Hveragerdi
11/07/24 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	3-1 HT 0-1	Hamar Hveragerdi
16/05/24 Iceland 4 Deild	Hamar Hveragerdi	3-1 HT 1-1	Arborg
27/07/23 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	2-3 HT 2-2	Hamar Hveragerdi

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	14	13	0	1	54	15	39
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	14	12	1	1	65	21	37
3	Arborg	14	10	2	2	44	11	32
4	Ellidi	14	6	2	6	36	39	20
5	Ulfarnir	14	3	7	4	34	38	16
6	Vaengir Jupiters	14	3	4	7	30	45	13
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	14	3	3	8	31	48	12
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	14	3	1	10	31	52	10
9	KF Hafnir	14	2	4	8	22	56	10
10	Alafoss	14	2	2	10	20	42	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arborg	Hamar Hveragerdi
IH Hafnarfjordur	4-0 W	7-1 W
KF Hafnir	5-2 W	3-1 W
Vaengir Jupiters	3-3 D	8-0 W
Ulfarnir	2-0 W	2-2 D
Alafoss	4-0 W	6-1 W
KFR Hvolsvöllur	4-0 W	7-2 W
Alftanes	0-1 L	3-1 W
Ellidi	6-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hamar Hveragerdi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Arborg

LWLWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	4-0	5	4	W
06/08	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	5-2	7	4	W
28/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
24/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
17/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
08/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland Lower League Cup	0-4	0-5	4	1	L
02/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
23/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
18/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	6-0	7	9	W
11/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-3	8	5	L

Hamar Hveragerdi

WWWDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	3-0	8-0	–	–	W
07/08	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	7-1	10	3	W
23/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	7-2	–	–	W
17/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
11/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland Lower League Cup	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
02/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-2	10	2	D
24/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
18/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	6-1	8	1	W
11/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arborg vs Hamar Hveragerdi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arborg win (40%). Probabilities: Arborg 40%, draw 22%, Hamar Hveragerdi 38%.

How many goals are expected in Arborg vs Hamar Hveragerdi?

The model expects 4.06 goals (Arborg 2.05 · Hamar Hveragerdi 2.01), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Arborg vs Hamar Hveragerdi?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.