Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 20/08, 22:15

Prediction: IH Hafnarfjordur vs Ellidi

Team pages: IH Hafnarfjordur · Ellidi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.77Total

IH Hafnarfjordur1.93

Ellidi2.84

1X2

25% 18% 57%

IH Hafnarfjordur Draw Ellidi

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

IH Hafnarfjordur 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLLWLL

Ellidi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWWDL

Head-to-head

IH Hafnarfjordur 3–1–2 Ellidi (6 last)

Ellidi6-2IH Hafnarfjordur
IH Hafnarfjordur6-3Ellidi
Ellidi3-5IH Hafnarfjordur
Ellidi3-3IH Hafnarfjordur
IH Hafnarfjordur3-2Ellidi
Ellidi3-0IH Hafnarfjordur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IH Hafnarfjordur 1431 · Ellidi 1494

	IH Hafnarfjordur	Draw	Ellidi
Our model	25%	18%	56%
Market	25%	18%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 4.77 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ellidi (rating 1431 vs 1494).
H2H favours IH Hafnarfjordur: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IH Hafnarfjordur	Ellidi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 3.7	2.4 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.8 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.50

X5.00

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 51.95

Under 51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 5.25

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 08:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.50▲	Pinn 4.11 ★
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	1.67 → 1.57▼	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:31 +12’	3.25	4.75	1.67
12:47 +8’	3.80▲	5.00▲	1.53▼
16:57 +5’	3.25▼	4.75▼	1.67▲
22:37 +3’	3.80▲	5.00▲	1.53▼
08:11 +9’	3.50▼	5.00	1.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:40	3.71	4.59	1.56
06:39	3.72▲	4.65▲	1.55▼
10:08 +1’	4.10▲	4.83▲	1.48▼
12:19	4.11▲	4.91▲	1.47▼
14:56 +4’	4.11	4.90▼	1.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IH Hafnarfjordur 3–1–2 Ellidi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Ellidi	6-2 HT 4-1	IH Hafnarfjordur
12/07/24 Iceland 3 Deild	IH Hafnarfjordur	6-3 HT 4-0	Ellidi
10/05/24 Iceland 3 Deild	Ellidi	3-5 HT 1-3	IH Hafnarfjordur
31/08/23 Iceland 3 Deild	Ellidi	3-3	IH Hafnarfjordur
25/06/23 Iceland 3 Deild	IH Hafnarfjordur	3-2 HT 2-1	Ellidi
06/08/22 Iceland 3 Deild	Ellidi	3-0 HT 2-0	IH Hafnarfjordur

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	14	13	0	1	54	15	39
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	14	12	1	1	65	21	37
3	Arborg	14	10	2	2	44	11	32
4	Ellidi	14	6	2	6	36	39	20
5	Ulfarnir	14	3	7	4	34	38	16
6	Vaengir Jupiters	14	3	4	7	30	45	13
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	14	3	3	8	31	48	12
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	14	3	1	10	31	52	10
9	KF Hafnir	14	2	4	8	22	56	10
10	Alafoss	14	2	2	10	20	42	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IH Hafnarfjordur	Ellidi
Arborg	0-4 L	0-6 L
Hamar Hveragerdi	1-7 L	0-4 L
KF Hafnir	5-2 W	2-3 L
Ulfarnir	1-8 L	3-3 D
Alafoss	2-4 L	1-0 W
Vaengir Jupiters	1-1 D	6-4 W
KFR Hvolsvöllur	2-1 W	4-1 W
Alftanes	1-2 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ellidi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IH Hafnarfjordur

LLLWDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-4	2	4	L
07/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-7	3	3	L
23/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	5-2	5	5	W
17/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	1-8	–	–	L
11/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
02/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
24/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
18/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
11/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	2-6	6	4	L
04/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	4	5	L

Ellidi

DWLLLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	2-3	9	5	L
07/08	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-3	8	1	D
22/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	4-2	6-4	6	3	W
13/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
01/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	6	L
24/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
18/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-6	5	9	L
11/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	6-2	9	4	W
04/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IH Hafnarfjordur vs Ellidi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ellidi win (57%). Probabilities: IH Hafnarfjordur 25%, draw 18%, Ellidi 57%.

How many goals are expected in IH Hafnarfjordur vs Ellidi?

The model expects 4.77 goals (IH Hafnarfjordur 1.93 · Ellidi 2.84), with a 55% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in IH Hafnarfjordur vs Ellidi?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.