Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 13/08, 21:15

Prediction: Alftanes vs Ulfarnir

Team pages: Alftanes · Ulfarnir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.16Total

Alftanes2.9

Ulfarnir1.26

1X2

71% 15% 14%

Alftanes Draw Ulfarnir

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alftanes 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWWWW

Ulfarnir 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDDDDWLD

Head-to-head

Alftanes 2–1–0 Ulfarnir (3 last)

Ulfarnir1-2Alftanes
Ulfarnir1-4Alftanes
Alftanes1-1Ulfarnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alftanes 1614 · Ulfarnir 1501

	Alftanes	Draw	Ulfarnir
Our model	70%	16%	13%
Market	71%	14%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alftanes (rating 1614 vs 1501).
H2H favours Alftanes: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alftanes	Ulfarnir
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 1.1	3 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6	2.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.25

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.00

2 (+2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 1.55 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 6.30
2	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 7.39 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:00 +1’	1.25	6.25	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:01	1.26	5.64	6.09
12:35	1.25▼	5.79▲	6.23▲
14:13 +1’	1.19▼	6.30▲	7.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alftanes 2–1–0 Ulfarnir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Ulfarnir	1-2 HT 0-1	Alftanes
03/07/24 Iceland 5 Deild	Ulfarnir	1-4 HT 1-2	Alftanes
08/03/24 Iceland League Cup C	Alftanes	1-1 HT 0-1	Ulfarnir

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	13	12	0	1	44	15	36
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	13	11	1	1	57	21	34
3	Arborg	13	9	2	2	40	11	29
4	Ellidi	13	6	2	5	34	36	20
5	Ulfarnir	13	3	7	3	34	28	16
6	Vaengir Jupiters	13	3	4	6	30	37	13
7	IH Hafnarfjordur	13	3	1	9	31	48	10
8	KFR Hvolsvöllur	13	2	3	8	28	46	9
9	Alafoss	13	2	2	9	18	39	8
10	KF Hafnir	13	1	4	8	19	54	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alftanes	Ulfarnir
Alafoss	7-2 W	2-2 D
Vaengir Jupiters	5-0 W	3-3 D
KFR Hvolsvöllur	3-1 W	3-3 D
Hamar Hveragerdi	1-3 L	2-2 D
Ellidi	5-2 W	3-3 D
Arborg	1-0 W	0-2 L
IH Hafnarfjordur	2-1 W	8-1 W
KF Hafnir	5-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 6 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alftanes (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alftanes

WWWWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	5-1	7-2	–	–	W
04/08	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland Lower League Cup	2-1	5-1	3	8	W
23/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	5-0	3	5	W
17/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	3-1	9	3	W
11/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
08/07	Fjolnir Iceland Lower League Cup	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
01/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	5-2	7	6	W
23/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	5-0	7	4	W

Ulfarnir

WLDDDDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-3	3	1	D
24/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	8-1	–	–	W
11/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	2-2	11	2	D
25/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
19/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
12/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	6	1	D
05/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
31/05	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	4-3	5-4	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alftanes vs Ulfarnir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alftanes win (71%). Probabilities: Alftanes 71%, draw 15%, Ulfarnir 14%.

How many goals are expected in Alftanes vs Ulfarnir?

The model expects 4.16 goals (Alftanes 2.9 · Ulfarnir 1.26), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alftanes vs Ulfarnir?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.