Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 14/08, 21:15

Prediction: Ellidi vs KF Hafnir

Team pages: Ellidi · KF Hafnir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.73Total

Ellidi3.21

KF Hafnir1.52

1X2

70% 15% 14%

Ellidi Draw KF Hafnir

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ellidi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLWWWD

KF Hafnir 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDDLLL

Head-to-head

Ellidi 2–1–0 KF Hafnir (3 last)

KF Hafnir0-0Ellidi
KF Hafnir1-2Ellidi
Ellidi5-4KF Hafnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ellidi 1504 · KF Hafnir 1411

	Ellidi	Draw	KF Hafnir
Our model	70%	15%	15%
Market	70%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.73 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 87%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ellidi (rating 1504 vs 1411).
H2H favours Ellidi: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ellidi	KF Hafnir
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 3	1.5 / 4.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1.5	0.8 / 2.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.8	1.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.75

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.95

2 (+2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.85

Under 4.751.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 5.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:07 +3’	1.28	5.75	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ellidi 2–1–0 KF Hafnir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	KF Hafnir	0-0 HT 0-0	Ellidi
19/07/25 Iceland 4 Deild	KF Hafnir	1-2 HT 1-1	Ellidi
15/05/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Ellidi	5-4 HT 2-3	KF Hafnir

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	13	12	0	1	44	15	36
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	13	11	1	1	57	21	34
3	Arborg	13	9	2	2	40	11	29
4	Ellidi	13	6	2	5	34	36	20
5	Ulfarnir	13	3	7	3	34	28	16
6	Vaengir Jupiters	13	3	4	6	30	37	13
7	IH Hafnarfjordur	13	3	1	9	31	48	10
8	KFR Hvolsvöllur	13	2	3	8	28	46	9
9	Alafoss	13	2	2	9	18	39	8
10	KF Hafnir	13	1	4	8	19	54	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ellidi	KF Hafnir
Ulfarnir	3-3 D	3-3 D
Alafoss	1-0 W	3-3 D
Vaengir Jupiters	6-4 W	0-6 L
KFR Hvolsvöllur	4-1 W	4-4 D
Alftanes	2-5 L	0-5 L
Hamar Hveragerdi	0-4 L	1-3 L
Arborg	0-6 L	2-5 L
IH Hafnarfjordur	6-2 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Ellidi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ellidi

LDWLLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-3	8	1	D
22/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	4-2	6-4	6	3	W
13/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
01/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	6	L
24/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
18/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-6	5	9	L
11/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	6-2	9	4	W
04/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
31/05	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-4	4-5	9	4	L

KF Hafnir

LDLDLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	2-5	3	4	L
23/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	5	L
17/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
11/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	–	–	D
25/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
18/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-3	4-4	10	7	D
09/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-5	3	4	L
04/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
31/05	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-6	0-8	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ellidi vs KF Hafnir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ellidi win (70%). Probabilities: Ellidi 70%, draw 15%, KF Hafnir 14%.

How many goals are expected in Ellidi vs KF Hafnir?

The model expects 4.73 goals (Ellidi 3.21 · KF Hafnir 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ellidi vs KF Hafnir?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.