Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 14/08, 21:15

Prediction: Arborg vs IH Hafnarfjordur

Team pages: Arborg · IH Hafnarfjordur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.84Total

Arborg3.42

IH Hafnarfjordur1.42

1X2

81% 11% 8%

Arborg Draw IH Hafnarfjordur

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Arborg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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IH Hafnarfjordur 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Arborg 1–1–0 IH Hafnarfjordur (2 last)

IH Hafnarfjordur1-2Arborg
Arborg0-0IH Hafnarfjordur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arborg 1561 · IH Hafnarfjordur 1431

	Arborg	Draw	IH Hafnarfjordur
Our model	75%	14%	12%
Market	86%	9%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.84 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 86%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arborg (rating 1561 vs 1431).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arborg	IH Hafnarfjordur
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	2 / 4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 5.9	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.07

X10.00

219.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.95

2 (+3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 51.82

Under 51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.07 → 1.07	Bet365 1.07
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:58 +12’	1.07	10.00	19.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Arborg 1–1–0 IH Hafnarfjordur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/26 Iceland 4 Deild	IH Hafnarfjordur	1-2 HT 0-1	Arborg
19/07/23 Iceland League Cup	Arborg	0-0 HT 0-0	IH Hafnarfjordur

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	13	12	0	1	44	15	36
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	13	11	1	1	57	21	34
3	Arborg	13	9	2	2	40	11	29
4	Ellidi	13	6	2	5	34	36	20
5	Ulfarnir	13	3	7	3	34	28	16
6	Vaengir Jupiters	13	3	4	6	30	37	13
7	IH Hafnarfjordur	13	3	1	9	31	48	10
8	KFR Hvolsvöllur	13	2	3	8	28	46	9
9	Alafoss	13	2	2	9	18	39	8
10	KF Hafnir	13	1	4	8	19	54	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arborg	IH Hafnarfjordur
KF Hafnir	5-2 W	5-2 W
Vaengir Jupiters	3-3 D	1-1 D
Ulfarnir	2-0 W	1-8 L
Alafoss	4-0 W	2-4 L
KFR Hvolsvöllur	4-0 W	2-1 W
Alftanes	0-1 L	1-2 L
Ellidi	6-0 W	2-6 L
Hamar Hveragerdi	0-3 L	1-7 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Arborg (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Arborg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	5-2	7	4	W
28/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
24/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
17/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
08/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland Lower League Cup	0-4	0-5	4	1	L
02/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
23/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
18/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	6-0	7	9	W
11/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
04/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	2	5	W

IH Hafnarfjordur

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-7	3	3	L
23/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	5-2	5	5	W
17/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	1-8	–	–	L
11/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
02/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
24/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
18/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
11/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	2-6	6	4	L
04/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
31/05	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	3-2	4-7	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arborg vs IH Hafnarfjordur?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arborg win (81%). Probabilities: Arborg 81%, draw 11%, IH Hafnarfjordur 8%.

How many goals are expected in Arborg vs IH Hafnarfjordur?

The model expects 4.84 goals (Arborg 3.42 · IH Hafnarfjordur 1.42), with a 52% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arborg vs IH Hafnarfjordur?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.