Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 06/08, 21:15

Prediction: KF Hafnir vs Arborg

Team pages: KF Hafnir · Arborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.7Total

KF Hafnir1.35

Arborg3.35

1X2

9% 11% 79%

KF Hafnir Draw Arborg

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

KF Hafnir 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLDDLL

Arborg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLWWD

Head-to-head

KF Hafnir 0–4 Arborg (4 last)

Arborg8-0KF Hafnir
Arborg3-0KF Hafnir
KF Hafnir1-4Arborg
Arborg3-0KF Hafnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Hafnir 1409 · Arborg 1546

	KF Hafnir	Draw	Arborg
Our model	11%	14%	75%
Market	8%	9%	83%

Estimated total (ours) 4.7 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 88%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arborg (rating 1409 vs 1546).
H2H favours Arborg: 4-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Hafnir	Arborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 4.5	2.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 2.8	1.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	4.1 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

112.00

X10.00

21.14

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.75)1.98

2 (-2.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.90

Under 4.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 5.1

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 01:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	21.00 → 12.00▼	Bet365 12.00
X	13.00 → 10.00▼	Bet365 10.00
2	1.06 → 1.14▲	Bet365 1.14

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:46 +2’	21.00	13.00	1.06
11:08 +3’	15.00▼	12.00▼	1.09▲
14:36 +5’	11.00▼	10.00▼	1.14▲
16:53 +2’	15.00▲	12.00▲	1.09▼
17:51 +32’	11.00▼	10.00▼	1.14▲
01:50 +4’	12.00▲	10.00	1.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:03	9.77	8.00	1.11
11:03 +1’	9.75▼	7.99▼	1.12▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Hafnir 0–0–4 Arborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	8-0 HT 6-0	KF Hafnir
29/07/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	3-0 HT 1-0	KF Hafnir
29/05/25 Iceland 4 Deild	KF Hafnir	1-4 HT 1-1	Arborg
03/06/22 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	3-0 HT 2-0	KF Hafnir

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	12	11	0	1	37	13	33
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	12	10	1	1	50	20	31
3	Arborg	12	8	2	2	35	9	26
4	Ellidi	12	6	1	5	31	33	19
5	Ulfarnir	12	3	6	3	31	25	15
6	Vaengir Jupiters	12	3	3	6	28	35	12
7	IH Hafnarfjordur	12	3	1	8	30	41	10
8	Alafoss	12	2	2	8	16	32	8
9	KFR Hvolsvöllur	12	2	2	8	26	44	8
10	KF Hafnir	12	1	4	7	17	49	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Hafnir	Arborg
IH Hafnarfjordur	2-5 L	2-1 W
Hamar Hveragerdi	1-3 L	0-3 L
Ulfarnir	3-3 D	2-0 W
Alafoss	3-3 D	4-0 W
Vaengir Jupiters	0-6 L	3-3 D
KFR Hvolsvöllur	4-4 D	4-0 W
Alftanes	0-5 L	0-1 L
Ellidi	0-0 D	6-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Arborg (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KF Hafnir

LLDLDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	5	L
17/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
11/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	–	–	D
25/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
18/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-3	4-4	10	7	D
09/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-5	3	4	L
04/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
31/05	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-6	0-8	8	2	L
21/05	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-5	2-8	6	3	L

Arborg

WWLWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
24/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
17/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
08/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland Lower League Cup	0-4	0-5	4	1	L
02/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
23/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
18/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	6-0	7	9	W
11/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
04/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
31/05	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	6-0	8-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Hafnir vs Arborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Arborg win (79%). Probabilities: KF Hafnir 9%, draw 11%, Arborg 79%.

How many goals are expected in KF Hafnir vs Arborg?

The model expects 4.7 goals (KF Hafnir 1.35 · Arborg 3.35), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Hafnir vs Arborg?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.