Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 07/08, 22:00

Prediction: IH Hafnarfjordur vs Hamar Hveragerdi

Team pages: IH Hafnarfjordur · Hamar Hveragerdi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.78Total

IH Hafnarfjordur1.56

Hamar Hveragerdi3.22

1X2

15% 15% 70%

IH Hafnarfjordur Draw Hamar Hveragerdi

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

IH Hafnarfjordur 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWDLLW

Hamar Hveragerdi 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

IH Hafnarfjordur 0–1 Hamar Hveragerdi (1 last)

Hamar Hveragerdi7-4IH Hafnarfjordur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IH Hafnarfjordur 1460 · Hamar Hveragerdi 1592

	IH Hafnarfjordur	Draw	Hamar Hveragerdi
Our model	15%	15%	69%
Market	16%	14%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 4.78 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamar Hveragerdi (rating 1460 vs 1592).
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IH Hafnarfjordur	Hamar Hveragerdi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 3.5	4.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	4.2 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.75

X6.25

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.88

2 (-2)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 51.93

Under 51.88

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 5.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:08 +2’	5.75	6.25	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IH Hafnarfjordur 0–0–1 Hamar Hveragerdi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Hamar Hveragerdi	7-4 HT 2-3	IH Hafnarfjordur

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	12	11	0	1	37	13	33
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	12	10	1	1	50	20	31
3	Arborg	12	8	2	2	35	9	26
4	Ellidi	12	6	1	5	31	33	19
5	Ulfarnir	12	3	6	3	31	25	15
6	Vaengir Jupiters	12	3	3	6	28	35	12
7	IH Hafnarfjordur	12	3	1	8	30	41	10
8	Alafoss	12	2	2	8	16	32	8
9	KFR Hvolsvöllur	12	2	2	8	26	44	8
10	KF Hafnir	12	1	4	7	17	49	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IH Hafnarfjordur	Hamar Hveragerdi
KF Hafnir	5-2 W	3-1 W
Ulfarnir	1-8 L	2-2 D
Alafoss	2-4 L	6-1 W
Vaengir Jupiters	1-1 D	5-1 W
KFR Hvolsvöllur	2-1 W	7-2 W
Alftanes	1-2 L	3-1 W
Ellidi	2-6 L	4-0 W
Arborg	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hamar Hveragerdi (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IH Hafnarfjordur

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	5-2	5	5	W
17/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	1-8	–	–	L
11/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
02/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
24/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
18/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
11/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	2-6	6	4	L
04/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
31/05	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	3-2	4-7	–	–	L
21/05	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	5-1	8-2	4	3	W

Hamar Hveragerdi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	7-2	–	–	W
17/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
11/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland Lower League Cup	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
02/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-2	10	2	D
24/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
18/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	6-1	8	1	W
11/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
04/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	5-1	8	2	W
31/05	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-3	7-4	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IH Hafnarfjordur vs Hamar Hveragerdi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hamar Hveragerdi win (70%). Probabilities: IH Hafnarfjordur 15%, draw 15%, Hamar Hveragerdi 70%.

How many goals are expected in IH Hafnarfjordur vs Hamar Hveragerdi?

The model expects 4.78 goals (IH Hafnarfjordur 1.56 · Hamar Hveragerdi 3.22), with a 54% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in IH Hafnarfjordur vs Hamar Hveragerdi?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.