Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 07/08, 21:15

Prediction: Ulfarnir vs Ellidi

Team pages: Ulfarnir · Ellidi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.38Total

Ulfarnir2.54

Ellidi1.84

1X2

53% 20% 27%

Ulfarnir Draw Ellidi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ulfarnir 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDDDWL

Ellidi 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Ulfarnir 1–0 Ellidi (1 last)

Ellidi4-5Ulfarnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ulfarnir 1502 · Ellidi 1515

	Ulfarnir	Draw	Ellidi
Our model	53%	20%	27%
Market	53%	20%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ulfarnir	Ellidi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.2	2.6 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.7	2.1 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 5.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:08 +2’	1.70	4.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulfarnir 1–0–0 Ellidi

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Ellidi	4-5 HT 3-4	Ulfarnir

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	12	11	0	1	37	13	33
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	12	10	1	1	50	20	31
3	Arborg	12	8	2	2	35	9	26
4	Ellidi	12	6	1	5	31	33	19
5	Ulfarnir	12	3	6	3	31	25	15
6	Vaengir Jupiters	12	3	3	6	28	35	12
7	IH Hafnarfjordur	12	3	1	8	30	41	10
8	Alafoss	12	2	2	8	16	32	8
9	KFR Hvolsvöllur	12	2	2	8	26	44	8
10	KF Hafnir	12	1	4	7	17	49	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ulfarnir	Ellidi
Arborg	0-2 L	0-6 L
IH Hafnarfjordur	8-1 W	6-2 W
KF Hafnir	3-3 D	0-0 D
Hamar Hveragerdi	2-2 D	0-4 L
Alafoss	2-2 D	1-0 W
Vaengir Jupiters	3-3 D	6-4 W
KFR Hvolsvöllur	3-3 D	4-1 W
Alftanes	1-2 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ulfarnir (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ulfarnir

DWLDDDDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	8-1	–	–	W
11/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	2-2	11	2	D
25/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
19/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
12/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	6	1	D
05/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
31/05	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	4-3	5-4	7	4	W
21/05	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	10	3	D

Ellidi

WLDWLLLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	4-2	6-4	6	3	W
13/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
01/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	6	L
24/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
18/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-6	5	9	L
11/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	6-2	9	4	W
04/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
31/05	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-4	4-5	9	4	L
21/05	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ulfarnir vs Ellidi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ulfarnir win (53%). Probabilities: Ulfarnir 53%, draw 20%, Ellidi 27%.

How many goals are expected in Ulfarnir vs Ellidi?

The model expects 4.38 goals (Ulfarnir 2.54 · Ellidi 1.84), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Ulfarnir vs Ellidi?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.