Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 23/07, 21:15

Prediction: Alftanes vs Vaengir Jupiters

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.49Total

Alftanes3.21

Vaengir Jupiters1.28

1X2

75% 14% 11%

Alftanes Draw Vaengir Jupiters

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alftanes 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDLW

Vaengir Jupiters 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alftanes 2–1–3 Vaengir Jupiters (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alftanes 1590 · Vaengir Jupiters 1466

	Alftanes	Draw	Vaengir Jupiters
Our model	74%	14%	11%
Market	75%	14%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.49 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alftanes (rating 1590 vs 1466).
H2H favours Vaengir Jupiters: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alftanes	Vaengir Jupiters
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	2.5 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.3	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.50

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.90

2 (+2.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.82

Under 4.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:39 +26’	1.22	6.50	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alftanes 2–1–3 Vaengir Jupiters

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Vaengir Jupiters	1-3 HT 1-2	Alftanes
08/08/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Alftanes	2-2 HT 1-1	Vaengir Jupiters
05/06/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Vaengir Jupiters	2-1 HT 1-1	Alftanes
16/06/23 Iceland 4 Deild	Alftanes	1-3 HT 0-0	Vaengir Jupiters
22/03/23 Iceland League Cup C	Alftanes	2-6 HT 2-3	Vaengir Jupiters
15/09/20 Iceland 3 Deild	Alftanes	1-0 HT 1-0	Vaengir Jupiters

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	11	10	0	1	32	13	30
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	11	9	1	1	43	18	28
3	Arborg	10	7	1	2	30	6	22
4	Ellidi	11	5	1	5	30	33	16
5	Ulfarnir	11	3	6	2	31	23	15
6	Vaengir Jupiters	10	3	2	5	25	27	11
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	11	2	2	7	24	37	8
8	Alafoss	11	2	2	7	16	31	8
9	IH Hafnarfjordur	11	2	1	8	25	39	7
10	KF Hafnir	11	1	4	6	15	44	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alftanes	Vaengir Jupiters
KFR Hvolsvöllur	3-1 W	3-5 L
Hamar Hveragerdi	1-3 L	1-5 L
Ellidi	5-2 W	4-6 L
Arborg	1-0 W	1-3 L
IH Hafnarfjordur	2-1 W	1-1 D
KF Hafnir	5-0 W	6-0 W
Ulfarnir	2-1 W	3-3 D
Alafoss	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Alftanes (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alftanes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	3-1	9	3	W
11/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
08/07	Fjolnir Iceland Lower League Cup	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
01/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	5-2	7	6	W
23/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	5-0	7	4	W
05/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
31/05	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
21/05	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-1	7	3	W

Vaengir Jupiters

LWLLLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	2-4	4-6	2	3	L
02/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
25/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	6-0	9	5	W
19/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
11/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	3-0	3-1	5	6	W
04/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	1-5	6	2	L
31/05	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-3	3-5	–	–	L
21/05	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
14/05	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
07/05	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alftanes vs Vaengir Jupiters?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alftanes win (75%). Probabilities: Alftanes 75%, draw 14%, Vaengir Jupiters 11%.

How many goals are expected in Alftanes vs Vaengir Jupiters?

The model expects 4.49 goals (Alftanes 3.21 · Vaengir Jupiters 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alftanes vs Vaengir Jupiters?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.