Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 23/07, 21:15

Prediction: IH Hafnarfjordur vs KF Hafnir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.74Total

IH Hafnarfjordur2.73

KF Hafnir2.02

1X2

53% 19% 28%

IH Hafnarfjordur Draw KF Hafnir

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

IH Hafnarfjordur 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWDLL

KF Hafnir 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDLDDL

Head-to-head

IH Hafnarfjordur 2–0 KF Hafnir (2 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IH Hafnarfjordur 1438 · KF Hafnir 1415

	IH Hafnarfjordur	Draw	KF Hafnir
Our model	53%	19%	28%
Market	53%	19%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.74 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 87%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours IH Hafnarfjordur: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IH Hafnarfjordur	KF Hafnir
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 3.7	1.4 / 4.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.8	0.7 / 3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.75

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 52.00

Under 51.80

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 5.95

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:39 +26’	1.70	4.75	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IH Hafnarfjordur 2–0–0 KF Hafnir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 Iceland 4 Deild	KF Hafnir	2-8 HT 1-5	IH Hafnarfjordur
25/04/24 Iceland Cup	IH Hafnarfjordur	4-2 HT 4-1	KF Hafnir

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	11	10	0	1	32	13	30
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	11	9	1	1	43	18	28
3	Arborg	10	7	1	2	30	6	22
4	Ellidi	11	5	1	5	30	33	16
5	Ulfarnir	11	3	6	2	31	23	15
6	Vaengir Jupiters	10	3	2	5	25	27	11
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	11	2	2	7	24	37	8
8	Alafoss	11	2	2	7	16	31	8
9	IH Hafnarfjordur	11	2	1	8	25	39	7
10	KF Hafnir	11	1	4	6	15	44	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IH Hafnarfjordur	KF Hafnir
Ulfarnir	1-8 L	3-3 D
Alafoss	2-4 L	3-3 D
Vaengir Jupiters	1-1 D	0-6 L
KFR Hvolsvöllur	2-1 W	4-4 D
Alftanes	1-2 L	0-5 L
Ellidi	2-6 L	0-0 D
Arborg	1-2 L	0-8 L
Hamar Hveragerdi	4-7 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	0 W 4 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IH Hafnarfjordur

LWLLLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	1-8	–	–	L
11/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
02/07	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
24/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
18/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
11/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	2-6	6	4	L
04/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
31/05	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	3-2	4-7	–	–	L
21/05	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	5-1	8-2	4	3	W
14/05	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	2-4	8	2	L

KF Hafnir

LLLDLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
11/07	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	–	–	D
25/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
18/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-3	4-4	10	7	D
09/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-5	3	4	L
04/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
31/05	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-6	0-8	8	2	L
21/05	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-5	2-8	6	3	L
14/05	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IH Hafnarfjordur vs KF Hafnir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IH Hafnarfjordur win (53%). Probabilities: IH Hafnarfjordur 53%, draw 19%, KF Hafnir 28%.

How many goals are expected in IH Hafnarfjordur vs KF Hafnir?

The model expects 4.74 goals (IH Hafnarfjordur 2.73 · KF Hafnir 2.02), with a 56% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in IH Hafnarfjordur vs KF Hafnir?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.