Prediction: Ellidi vs Alafoss
| Ellidi | Draw | Alafoss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 16% | 17% |
| Market | 67% | 15% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ellidi (rating 1496 vs 1427).
- H2H favours Ellidi: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ellidi | Alafoss | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 3 | 1.4 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1.6 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 7 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.5 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ellidi 2–0–0 Alafoss
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Iceland 4 Deild | Alafoss | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Ellidi |
| 11/04/19 Iceland Cup | Ellidi | 8-1 HT 3-0 | Alafoss |
Standings · Iceland 4 Deild
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alftanes | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | Hamar Hveragerdi | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Arborg | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Ellidi | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 33 | 16 |
| 5 | Ulfarnir | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 23 | 15 |
| 6 | Vaengir Jupiters | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 11 |
| 7 | KFR Hvolsvöllur | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 37 | 8 |
| 8 | Alafoss | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 8 |
| 9 | IH Hafnarfjordur | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 39 | 7 |
| 10 | KF Hafnir | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 44 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ellidi | Alafoss |
|---|---|---|
| Vaengir Jupiters | 6-4 W | 1-3 L |
| KFR Hvolsvöllur | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Alftanes | 2-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Hamar Hveragerdi | 0-4 L | 1-6 L |
| Arborg | 0-6 L | 0-4 L |
| IH Hafnarfjordur | 6-2 W | 4-2 W |
| KF Hafnir | 0-0 D | 3-3 D |
| Ulfarnir | 4-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Ellidi (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ellidi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild |
4-2 | 6-4 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild |
2-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/07 | Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild |
1-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 24/06 | Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 18/06 | Arborg Iceland 4 Deild |
0-5 | 0-6 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 11/06 | IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild |
4-1 | 6-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 04/06 | KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 31/05 | Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild |
3-4 | 4-5 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 10 | L |
Alafoss
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Arborg Iceland 4 Deild |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/07 | KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild |
3-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 25/06 | Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/06 | Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild |
1-3 | 1-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 11/06 | Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/06 | KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/05 | Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | Arborg Iceland 4 Deild |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ellidi vs Alafoss?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ellidi win (67%). Probabilities: Ellidi 67%, draw 16%, Alafoss 18%.
How many goals are expected in Ellidi vs Alafoss?
The model expects 4.77 goals (Ellidi 3.12 · Alafoss 1.64), with a 55% chance of under 5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ellidi vs Alafoss?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.