Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 24/07, 21:15

Prediction: Arborg vs Ulfarnir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.24Total

Arborg3.02

Ulfarnir1.22

1X2

73% 15% 12%

Arborg Draw Ulfarnir

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Arborg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWLWLW

Ulfarnir 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDDDDW

Head-to-head

Arborg 0–1–0 Ulfarnir (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arborg 1557 · Ulfarnir 1542

	Arborg	Draw	Ulfarnir
Our model	73%	15%	12%
Market	73%	15%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 4.24 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arborg	Ulfarnir
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1	3.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.7	1.6 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 5.7	2.9 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.80

2 (+2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4.5

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
08:00 +8’	1.22	6.00	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arborg 0–1–0 Ulfarnir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Ulfarnir	0-0 HT 0-0	Arborg

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	11	10	0	1	32	13	30
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	11	9	1	1	43	18	28
3	Arborg	10	7	1	2	30	6	22
4	Ellidi	11	5	1	5	30	33	16
5	Ulfarnir	11	3	6	2	31	23	15
6	Vaengir Jupiters	10	3	2	5	25	27	11
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	11	2	2	7	24	37	8
8	Alafoss	11	2	2	7	16	31	8
9	IH Hafnarfjordur	11	2	1	8	25	39	7
10	KF Hafnir	11	1	4	6	15	44	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arborg	Ulfarnir
Alafoss	4-0 W	2-2 D
KFR Hvolsvöllur	4-0 W	3-3 D
Alftanes	0-1 L	1-2 L
Ellidi	6-0 W	5-4 W
Hamar Hveragerdi	0-3 L	2-2 D
IH Hafnarfjordur	2-1 W	8-1 W
KF Hafnir	8-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Arborg (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Arborg

WDWWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
08/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland Lower League Cup	0-4	0-5	4	1	L
02/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
23/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
18/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	6-0	7	9	W
11/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
04/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
31/05	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	6-0	8-0	6	2	W
21/05	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
14/05	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	3-0	8	5	W

Ulfarnir

WDWLDDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	8-1	–	–	W
11/07	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
02/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	2-2	11	2	D
25/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
19/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
12/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	6	1	D
05/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
31/05	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	4-3	5-4	7	4	W
21/05	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
14/05	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	4-2	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arborg vs Ulfarnir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arborg win (73%). Probabilities: Arborg 73%, draw 15%, Ulfarnir 12%.

How many goals are expected in Arborg vs Ulfarnir?

The model expects 4.24 goals (Arborg 3.02 · Ulfarnir 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Arborg vs Ulfarnir?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.