Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 18/07, 15:00

Prediction: Vaengir Jupiters vs Ellidi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.42Total

Vaengir Jupiters2.59

Ellidi1.83

1X2

54% 20% 26%

Vaengir Jupiters Draw Ellidi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vaengir Jupiters 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Ellidi 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vaengir Jupiters 2–1–3 Ellidi (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vaengir Jupiters 1481 · Ellidi 1499

	Vaengir Jupiters	Draw	Ellidi
Our model	54%	20%	26%
Market	54%	20%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 4.42 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ellidi: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vaengir Jupiters	Ellidi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.2	2.4 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.5	2 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.95

View on Bet365 ↗

Market odds journey

We have no recommendation published on this match: this is just how the market has moved at the two bookmakers we track. It's market data, not something we recommend.

We only show the match winner: it's the only market both bookmakers offer as exactly the same bet. On the goal line and the handicap each bookmaker uses its own line, so putting them side by side would mean comparing different bets.

Bet365 margin 11.7%

First time we saw it

1 1.67 X 4.50 2 3.40

The bookmaker moved it 10:07 We saw it 10:09 +2 min

Last check: 11:19. We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vaengir Jupiters 2–1–3 Ellidi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Iceland 4 Deild	Ellidi	0-2 HT 0-1	Vaengir Jupiters
14/08/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Vaengir Jupiters	0-5 HT 0-3	Ellidi
12/06/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Ellidi	1-1 HT 0-0	Vaengir Jupiters
10/08/24 Iceland 3 Deild	Ellidi	1-0 HT 1-0	Vaengir Jupiters
31/05/24 Iceland 3 Deild	Vaengir Jupiters	0-2 HT 0-0	Ellidi
23/02/24 Iceland League Cup B	Vaengir Jupiters	6-4 HT 3-2	Ellidi

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	10	9	0	1	29	12	27
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	10	8	1	1	40	17	25
3	Arborg	9	6	1	2	26	6	19
4	Ellidi	10	4	1	5	24	29	13
5	Ulfarnir	10	2	6	2	23	22	12
6	Vaengir Jupiters	9	3	2	4	21	21	11
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	10	2	2	6	23	34	8
8	Alafoss	10	2	2	6	16	27	8
9	IH Hafnarfjordur	10	2	1	7	24	31	7
10	KF Hafnir	10	1	4	5	14	41	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vaengir Jupiters	Ellidi
IH Hafnarfjordur	1-1 D	6-2 W
KF Hafnir	6-0 W	0-0 D
Ulfarnir	3-3 D	4-5 L
Alafoss	3-1 W	3-1 W
Hamar Hveragerdi	1-5 L	0-4 L
KFR Hvolsvöllur	3-5 L	4-1 W
Alftanes	1-3 L	2-5 L
Arborg	1-3 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vaengir Jupiters (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vaengir Jupiters

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
25/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	6-0	9	5	W
19/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
11/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	3-0	3-1	5	6	W
04/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	1-5	6	2	L
31/05	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	0-3	3-5	–	–	L
21/05	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
14/05	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
07/05	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	1-3	5	2	L
13/04	BF 108 Iceland League Cup C	1-1	3-1	10	2	W

Ellidi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/07	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
01/07	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-5	3	6	L
24/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
18/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-6	5	9	L
11/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	6-2	9	4	W
04/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
31/05	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-4	4-5	9	4	L
21/05	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-2	9	10	L
07/05	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	5-3	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vaengir Jupiters vs Ellidi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vaengir Jupiters win (54%). Probabilities: Vaengir Jupiters 54%, draw 20%, Ellidi 26%.

How many goals are expected in Vaengir Jupiters vs Ellidi?

The model expects 4.42 goals (Vaengir Jupiters 2.59 · Ellidi 1.83), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vaengir Jupiters vs Ellidi?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.