Prediction: Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew
Team pages: Chicago Fire · Columbus Crew
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Chicago Fire1.66
Columbus Crew1.4
1X2
Chicago Fire
Draw
Columbus Crew
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Chicago Fire
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Columbus Crew
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chicago Fire
1–1–4
Columbus Crew
(6 last)
- Columbus Crew0-0Chicago Fire
- Chicago Fire2-0Columbus Crew
- Columbus Crew4-2Chicago Fire
- Chicago Fire1-3Columbus Crew
- Columbus Crew2-1Chicago Fire
- Columbus Crew3-0Chicago Fire
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chicago Fire 1522 · Columbus Crew 1568
| Chicago Fire | Draw | Columbus Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Columbus Crew (rating 1522 vs 1568).
- H2H favours Columbus Crew: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.8 | 2.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire 1–1–4 Columbus Crew
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 USA MLS | Columbus Crew | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chicago Fire |
| 28/09/25 USA MLS | Chicago Fire | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Columbus Crew |
| 23/02/25 USA MLS | Columbus Crew | 4-2 HT 3-2 | Chicago Fire |
| 19/05/24 USA MLS | Chicago Fire | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Columbus Crew |
| 10/03/24 USA MLS | Columbus Crew | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Chicago Fire |
| 21/09/23 USA MLS | Columbus Crew | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Chicago Fire |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 66 | 23 | 71 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 44 | 58 |
| 3 | Inter Miami CF | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 75 | 55 | 56 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 61 | 50 | 55 |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 48 | 53 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 62 | 51 | 47 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 67 | 73 | 46 |
| 8 | Columbus Crew | 33 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 55 | 49 | 44 |
| 9 | Orlando City SC | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 78 | 43 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 59 | 39 |
| 11 | New York City FC | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 48 | 45 | 39 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 50 | 60 | 39 |
| 13 | DC United | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 39 | 60 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 56 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 37 | 67 | 26 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Charlotte FC | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chicago Fire
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 29/10 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/10 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 18/10 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 15/10 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 10/10 | New York City FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 07/10 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 27/09 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 20/09 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
Columbus Crew
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | DC United USA MLS |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/10 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | FC Cincinnati USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/10 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
1-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 28/09 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 11 | W |
| 20/09 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 10/09 | DC United USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire win (43%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire 43%, draw 25%, Columbus Crew 32%.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Chicago Fire 1.66 · Columbus Crew 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.