Football · USA MLS · 08/11, 01:00

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · Los Angeles FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Seattle Sounders1.57

Los Angeles FC1.18

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Seattle Sounders Draw Los Angeles FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLDDL

Los Angeles FC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLDWDD

Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 1–1–4 Los Angeles FC (6 last)

Los Angeles FC1-0Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles FC4-0Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders5-2Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC1-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders0-1Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders0-3Los Angeles FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1493 · Los Angeles FC 1511

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	Los Angeles FC
Our model	45%	27%	27%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Los Angeles FC: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	Los Angeles FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.6	2 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.10 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:59 +12’	2.00	3.70	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:10 +2’	2.10	3.69	3.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 1–1–4 Los Angeles FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
15/05/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	4-0 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
08/03/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	5-2 HT 1-1	Los Angeles FC
24/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Los Angeles FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
29/08/24 USA US Open Cup	Seattle Sounders	0-1 HT 0-0	Los Angeles FC
18/08/24 Leagues Cup	Seattle Sounders	0-3 HT 0-2	Los Angeles FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	32	17	7	8	67	33	58
2	FC Dallas	33	15	10	8	59	50	55
3	San Jose Earthquakes	33	14	10	9	56	48	52
4	St. Louis City SC	33	14	9	10	58	48	51
5	Houston Dynamo	32	14	9	9	42	39	51
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	47
7	LA Galaxy	33	11	11	11	49	55	44
8	Colorado Rapids	33	12	7	14	46	47	43
9	Seattle Sounders	32	11	10	11	41	40	43
10	Real Salt Lake	33	12	6	15	51	51	42
11	Portland Timbers	32	11	7	14	57	60	40
12	San Diego FC	33	9	11	13	57	62	38
13	Minnesota United	32	9	11	12	50	56	38
14	Austin FC	33	8	10	15	42	63	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	33	6	5	22	39	81	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Seattle Sounders	Los Angeles FC
FC Dallas	0-1 L	0-1 L
Sporting Kansas City	2-1 W	1-3 L
Real Salt Lake	2-0 W	2-2 D
LA Galaxy	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Seattle Sounders (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seattle Sounders

DDWWWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
25/10	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	2-2	3	2	D
18/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
15/10	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-1	11	2	L
11/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
02/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
27/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
24/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
20/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	3-3	6	1	D
13/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D

Los Angeles FC

DDWLDLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	2-2	12	2	D
18/10	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
15/10	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	3-1	7	0	W
11/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
27/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
20/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
13/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	1-3	13	4	L
10/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
06/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
30/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Seattle Sounders win (46%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 46%, draw 26%, Los Angeles FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Seattle Sounders 1.57 · Los Angeles FC 1.18), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.