Football · USA MLS · 08/11, 01:00

Prediction: San Diego FC vs Sporting Kansas City

Team pages: San Diego FC · Sporting Kansas City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

San Diego FC2.53

Sporting Kansas City1.47

1X2

59% 21% 20%

San Diego FC Draw Sporting Kansas City

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

San Diego FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDLDDDLW

Sporting Kansas City 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLLLD

Head-to-head

San Diego FC 2–1–0 Sporting Kansas City (3 last)

Sporting Kansas City0-1San Diego FC
Sporting Kansas City0-2San Diego FC
San Diego FC0-0Sporting Kansas City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Diego FC 1465 · Sporting Kansas City 1433

	San Diego FC	Draw	Sporting Kansas City
Our model	60%	20%	20%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours San Diego FC: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Diego FC	Sporting Kansas City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.8	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.33

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 5.36 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +9’	1.57	4.33	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:17	1.45	5.36	5.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Diego FC 2–1–0 Sporting Kansas City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-1 HT 0-1	San Diego FC
10/08/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-2 HT 0-1	San Diego FC
18/05/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	32	17	7	8	67	33	58
2	FC Dallas	33	15	10	8	59	50	55
3	San Jose Earthquakes	33	14	10	9	56	48	52
4	St. Louis City SC	33	14	9	10	58	48	51
5	Houston Dynamo	32	14	9	9	42	39	51
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	47
7	LA Galaxy	33	11	11	11	49	55	44
8	Colorado Rapids	33	12	7	14	46	47	43
9	Seattle Sounders	32	11	10	11	41	40	43
10	Real Salt Lake	33	12	6	15	51	51	42
11	Portland Timbers	32	11	7	14	57	60	40
12	San Diego FC	33	9	11	13	57	62	38
13	Minnesota United	32	9	11	12	50	56	38
14	Austin FC	33	8	10	15	42	63	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	33	6	5	22	39	81	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Diego FC	Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders	2-2 D	1-2 L
Houston Dynamo	3-3 D	2-0 W
Austin FC	3-3 D	1-2 L
Philadelphia Union	0-5 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Diego FC

LLDDLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
29/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
25/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
18/10	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-2	2-2	3	3	D
15/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	2-3	3-3	10	6	D
11/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-3	1-4	7	5	L
27/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	3-3	1	1	D
21/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
14/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-5	11	4	L
10/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	2-3	1	10	L

Sporting Kansas City

WLWLDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
29/10	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-3	4	4	L
25/10	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
18/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-2	1-3	7	6	L
15/10	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	4	0	L
11/10	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	1	D
02/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
27/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
20/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	3-0	3-4	3	7	L
13/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-0	3-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Diego FC vs Sporting Kansas City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Diego FC win (59%). Probabilities: San Diego FC 59%, draw 21%, Sporting Kansas City 20%.

How many goals are expected in San Diego FC vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model expects 3.99 goals (San Diego FC 2.53 · Sporting Kansas City 1.47), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.