Football · USA MLS · 08/11, 01:00

Prediction: FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids

Team pages: FC Dallas · Colorado Rapids

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

FC Dallas1.67

Colorado Rapids1.23

1X2

47% 26% 27%

FC Dallas Draw Colorado Rapids

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dallas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Colorado Rapids 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLDDDWDL

Head-to-head

FC Dallas 2–2–2 Colorado Rapids (6 last)

Colorado Rapids1-2FC Dallas
FC Dallas3-1Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids3-3FC Dallas
FC Dallas2-3Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids2-1FC Dallas
FC Dallas1-1Colorado Rapids

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dallas 1539 · Colorado Rapids 1465

	FC Dallas	Draw	Colorado Rapids
Our model	46%	26%	27%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Dallas (rating 1539 vs 1465).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dallas	Colorado Rapids
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.9	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.09
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.85 ★
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +1’	2.00	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:51 +27’	2.09	3.85	3.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dallas 2–2–2 Colorado Rapids

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Dallas
21/09/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	3-1 HT 2-1	Colorado Rapids
02/03/25 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	3-3 HT 2-2	FC Dallas
01/09/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-3 HT 1-1	Colorado Rapids
21/04/24 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Dallas
15/10/23 USA MLS	FC Dallas	1-1 HT 1-1	Colorado Rapids

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	32	17	7	8	67	33	58
2	FC Dallas	33	15	10	8	59	50	55
3	San Jose Earthquakes	33	14	10	9	56	48	52
4	St. Louis City SC	33	14	9	10	58	48	51
5	Houston Dynamo	32	14	9	9	42	39	51
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	47
7	LA Galaxy	33	11	11	11	49	55	44
8	Colorado Rapids	33	12	7	14	46	47	43
9	Seattle Sounders	32	11	10	11	41	40	43
10	Real Salt Lake	33	12	6	15	51	51	42
11	Portland Timbers	32	11	7	14	57	60	40
12	San Diego FC	33	9	11	13	57	62	38
13	Minnesota United	32	9	11	12	50	56	38
14	Austin FC	33	8	10	15	42	63	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	33	6	5	22	39	81	23

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Dallas	Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes	3-0 W	2-2 D
Seattle Sounders	1-0 W	3-3 D
Austin FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Portland Timbers	2-1 W	0-0 D
Minnesota United	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Dallas (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Dallas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
29/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
25/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	3-0	6	2	W
18/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-2	5	9	D
15/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	2-3	3	2	L
27/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
20/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
13/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
10/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	2-1	6	4	W

Colorado Rapids

DWDLDDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-4	5	6	L
29/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
25/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/10	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
15/10	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
11/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
27/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	2-3	6	4	L
20/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	3-3	4	1	D
13/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
10/09	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Dallas win (47%). Probabilities: FC Dallas 47%, draw 26%, Colorado Rapids 27%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids?

The model expects 2.9 goals (FC Dallas 1.67 · Colorado Rapids 1.23), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.