Football · USA MLS · 08/11, 01:00

Prediction: Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes

Team pages: Minnesota United · San Jose Earthquakes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Minnesota United2.04

San Jose Earthquakes1.96

1X2

40% 22% 37%

Minnesota United Draw San Jose Earthquakes

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Minnesota United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDWDW

San Jose Earthquakes 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDDLDW

Head-to-head

Minnesota United 5–1 San Jose Earthquakes (6 last)

San Jose Earthquakes1-5Minnesota United
San Jose Earthquakes4-2Minnesota United
Minnesota United4-1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes0-1Minnesota United
San Jose Earthquakes1-2Minnesota United
Minnesota United2-0San Jose Earthquakes

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Jose Earthquakes (rating 1478 vs 1521).
H2H favours Minnesota United: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minnesota United	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.4	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.92

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.77▲	Pinn 1.77
X	4.14 → 4.19▲	Pinn 4.19
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:10 +2’	1.75	4.14	4.00
03:57 +15’	1.77▲	4.19▲	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United 5–0–1 San Jose Earthquakes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-5 HT 1-3	Minnesota United
29/04/26 USA US Open Cup	San Jose Earthquakes	4-2 HT 1-0	Minnesota United
13/07/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	4-1 HT 3-0	San Jose Earthquakes
09/03/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	0-1 HT 0-1	Minnesota United
01/09/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-2 HT 1-1	Minnesota United
21/07/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	2-0 HT 1-0	San Jose Earthquakes

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	32	17	7	8	67	33	58
2	FC Dallas	33	15	10	8	59	50	55
3	San Jose Earthquakes	33	14	10	9	56	48	52
4	St. Louis City SC	33	14	9	10	58	48	51
5	Houston Dynamo	32	14	9	9	42	39	51
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	47
7	LA Galaxy	33	11	11	11	49	55	44
8	Colorado Rapids	33	12	7	14	46	47	43
9	Seattle Sounders	32	11	10	11	41	40	43
10	Real Salt Lake	33	12	6	15	51	51	42
11	Portland Timbers	32	11	7	14	57	60	40
12	San Diego FC	33	9	11	13	57	62	38
13	Minnesota United	32	9	11	12	50	56	38
14	Austin FC	33	8	10	15	42	63	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	33	6	5	22	39	81	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minnesota United	San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Colorado Rapids	2-2 D	2-2 D
FC Dallas	1-2 L	0-3 L
Portland Timbers	4-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: San Jose Earthquakes (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Minnesota United

LLLLLDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	4	W
25/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
17/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	6	4	W
15/10	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
11/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
27/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
20/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
13/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	2-4	5	3	L
10/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
06/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-3	4-5	3	4	L

San Jose Earthquakes

WWDWDDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
29/10	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-1	2-2	11	9	D
25/10	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
18/10	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
11/10	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
27/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-0	3-1	5	3	W
20/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	18	4	D
13/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-1	3-2	3	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minnesota United win (40%). Probabilities: Minnesota United 40%, draw 22%, San Jose Earthquakes 37%.

How many goals are expected in Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Minnesota United 2.04 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.96), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.