Football · USA MLS · 08/11, 01:00

Prediction: Real Salt Lake vs LA Galaxy

Team pages: Real Salt Lake · LA Galaxy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Real Salt Lake2.08

LA Galaxy1.45

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Real Salt Lake Draw LA Galaxy

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Salt Lake 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDWWWL

LA Galaxy 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWDDW

Head-to-head

Real Salt Lake 1–2–3 LA Galaxy (6 last)

LA Galaxy2-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake3-3LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy2-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-0LA Galaxy
Real Salt Lake0-1LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy2-2Real Salt Lake

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Salt Lake 1488 · LA Galaxy 1535

	Real Salt Lake	Draw	LA Galaxy
Our model	51%	23%	26%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LA Galaxy (rating 1488 vs 1535).
H2H favours LA Galaxy: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Salt Lake	LA Galaxy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.80

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.51
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.65 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:01 +10’	1.83	3.80	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:51 +26’	1.59	4.56	4.86
00:51 +22’	1.61▲	4.51▼	4.73▼
02:00 +11’	1.63▲	4.51	4.65▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Salt Lake 1–2–3 LA Galaxy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	2-1 HT 1-1	Real Salt Lake
13/02/26 America Friendlies	Real Salt Lake	3-3	LA Galaxy
01/06/25 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
05/04/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-0 HT 2-0	LA Galaxy
23/06/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	0-1 HT 0-0	LA Galaxy
12/05/24 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	2-2 HT 0-2	Real Salt Lake

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	32	17	7	8	67	33	58
2	FC Dallas	33	15	10	8	59	50	55
3	San Jose Earthquakes	33	14	10	9	56	48	52
4	St. Louis City SC	33	14	9	10	58	48	51
5	Houston Dynamo	32	14	9	9	42	39	51
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	47
7	LA Galaxy	33	11	11	11	49	55	44
8	Colorado Rapids	33	12	7	14	46	47	43
9	Seattle Sounders	32	11	10	11	41	40	43
10	Real Salt Lake	33	12	6	15	51	51	42
11	Portland Timbers	32	11	7	14	57	60	40
12	San Diego FC	33	9	11	13	57	62	38
13	Minnesota United	32	9	11	12	50	56	38
14	Austin FC	33	8	10	15	42	63	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	33	6	5	22	39	81	23

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Salt Lake	LA Galaxy
Austin FC	2-1 W	4-1 W
St. Louis City SC	3-0 W	2-6 L
New England Revolution	3-0 W	2-1 W
Seattle Sounders	0-2 L	1-1 D
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Salt Lake

LLLWLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
29/10	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
25/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
18/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	6	W
15/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
11/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
27/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
24/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
20/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
13/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	10	4	L

LA Galaxy

WLDWWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Austin FC USA MLS	2-0	4-1	7	3	W
26/10	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
18/10	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-2	2-2	5	3	D
15/10	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
12/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-5	2-6	3	4	L
27/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-2	3-2	5	4	W
20/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-2	3-2	9	2	W
13/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
10/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
06/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Salt Lake vs LA Galaxy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Salt Lake win (51%). Probabilities: Real Salt Lake 51%, draw 24%, LA Galaxy 25%.

How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs LA Galaxy?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Real Salt Lake 2.08 · LA Galaxy 1.45), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs LA Galaxy?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.