Football · Brazil Serie B · 30/10, 23:30

Prediction: Criciuma vs Ponte Preta

Team pages: Criciuma · Ponte Preta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Criciuma2.08

Ponte Preta0.99

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Criciuma Draw Ponte Preta

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Criciuma 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLWWL

Ponte Preta 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Criciuma 3–3–0 Ponte Preta (6 last)

Ponte Preta1-2Criciuma
Criciuma2-1Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta1-2Criciuma
Ponte Preta1-1Criciuma
Criciuma1-1Ponte Preta
Criciuma1-1Ponte Preta

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Criciuma (rating 1513 vs 1404).
H2H favours Criciuma: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Criciuma	Ponte Preta
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	0.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 16:48

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.06 → 1.08▲	Pinn 1.08
X	11.79 → 11.49▼	Pinn 11.49
2	24.39 → 25.15▲	Pinn 25.15

See the full journey (7)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:42 +16’	1.06	11.79	24.39
00:15 +17’	1.06	11.69▼	24.19▼
00:43 +52’	1.06▲	12.21▲	26.33▲
01:48 +46’	1.07▲	12.05▼	26.77▲
02:29 +59’	1.07▲	11.84▼	26.09▼
06:41 +43’	1.07▲	11.61▼	25.35▼
15:33 +74’	1.08▲	11.49▼	25.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 6 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Criciuma 3–3–0 Ponte Preta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	1-2 HT 0-1	Criciuma
03/08/23 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	2-1 HT 2-1	Ponte Preta
22/04/23 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	1-2 HT 1-2	Criciuma
29/10/22 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	1-1 HT 1-1	Criciuma
16/07/22 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	1-1 HT 0-1	Ponte Preta
09/04/21 Copa do Brasil	Criciuma	1-1 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	62	30	64
2	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	50	36	62
3	EC Juventude	34	17	10	7	41	23	61
4	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	36	30	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	47	38	54
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Operario PR	35	14	9	12	45	46	51
10	Goias	34	14	7	13	34	40	49
11	Sao Bernardo SP	35	13	10	12	49	39	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	40	38	47
13	Cuiaba	34	11	14	9	32	27	47
14	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
15	Nautico	34	11	10	13	39	42	43
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	37	42	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	33	45	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	44	51	32
19	America MG	34	5	5	24	22	54	20
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	21	76	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Criciuma	Ponte Preta
Sport Recife	1-2 L	0-2 L
Sao Bernardo SP	1-0 W	0-2 L
America MG	1-0 W	0-2 L
Londrina	2-0 W	0-6 L
Atletico GO	0-4 L	1-1 D
EC Juventude	0-2 L	0-2 L
Cuiaba	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Criciuma (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Criciuma

WLLLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	8	3	L
18/10	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
13/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
09/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
03/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
27/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-0	5	7	W
23/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	17	5	L
13/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-4	5	6	L
09/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	10	7	L
05/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	2	W

Ponte Preta

LLLLWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
13/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-5	3	8	L
07/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
30/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
20/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	0	3	L
11/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
30/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Criciuma vs Ponte Preta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Criciuma win (62%). Probabilities: Criciuma 62%, draw 22%, Ponte Preta 16%.

How many goals are expected in Criciuma vs Ponte Preta?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Criciuma 2.08 · Ponte Preta 0.99), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Ponte Preta?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.