Football · Latvia Virsliga · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: SK Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils

Team pages: SK Super Nova · BFC Daugavpils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

SK Super Nova0.84

BFC Daugavpils1.32

1X2

24% 28% 48%

SK Super Nova Draw BFC Daugavpils

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Super Nova 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWLLLD

BFC Daugavpils 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDWWWW

Head-to-head

SK Super Nova 2–4–0 BFC Daugavpils (6 last)

SK Super Nova0-0BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils0-0SK Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils0-1SK Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils2-2SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-1BFC Daugavpils
SK Super Nova4-1BFC Daugavpils

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Super Nova 1482 · BFC Daugavpils 1530

	SK Super Nova	Draw	BFC Daugavpils
Our model	23%	31%	47%
Market	26%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFC Daugavpils (rating 1482 vs 1530).
H2H favours SK Super Nova: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Super Nova	BFC Daugavpils
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.7	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +23’	3.50	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Super Nova 2–4–0 BFC Daugavpils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	0-0 HT 0-0	BFC Daugavpils
16/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	0-0 HT 0-0	SK Super Nova
27/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	0-1 HT 0-0	SK Super Nova
25/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	2-2 HT 1-0	SK Super Nova
02/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-1 HT 0-1	BFC Daugavpils
01/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	4-1 HT 3-0	BFC Daugavpils

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	35	28	5	2	87	24	89
2	Riga FC	35	25	8	2	95	33	83
3	FK Auda	35	21	7	7	61	38	70
4	BFC Daugavpils	35	14	9	12	42	37	51
5	FK Liepaja	35	13	9	13	49	49	48
6	SK Super Nova	35	11	6	18	35	53	39
7	FK Jelgava	35	8	8	19	37	61	32
8	SC Grobinas	35	6	11	18	27	64	29
9	Tukums 2000	35	5	10	20	44	67	25
10	Ogre United	35	4	7	24	34	85	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Super Nova	BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja	3-3 D	0-0 D
RFS	0-3 L	1-2 L
Riga FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
SC Grobinas	2-1 W	0-1 L
Ogre United	0-1 L	2-1 W
Tukums 2000	1-0 W	2-0 W
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Auda	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: BFC Daugavpils (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Super Nova

DWWLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-3	1	8	D
25/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-3	5	1	L
18/10	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
15/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
10/10	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
20/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
15/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	0	8	L
10/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
05/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
29/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D

BFC Daugavpils

WDLDLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
25/10	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
19/10	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
11/10	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
19/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
13/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
29/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?

According to our model, the most likely result is an BFC Daugavpils win (48%). Probabilities: SK Super Nova 24%, draw 28%, BFC Daugavpils 48%.

How many goals are expected in SK Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model expects 2.17 goals (SK Super Nova 0.84 · BFC Daugavpils 1.32), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.