Football · Latvia Virsliga · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: SC Grobinas vs FK Liepaja

Team pages: SC Grobinas · FK Liepaja

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

SC Grobinas1.26

FK Liepaja1.65

1X2

29% 26% 46%

SC Grobinas Draw FK Liepaja

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Grobinas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDLWLL

FK Liepaja 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDLWDD

Head-to-head

SC Grobinas 2–1–3 FK Liepaja (6 last)

FK Liepaja3-1SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas1-0FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja1-1SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas0-1FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja2-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas2-0FK Liepaja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Grobinas 1462 · FK Liepaja 1496

	SC Grobinas	Draw	FK Liepaja
Our model	28%	26%	45%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Liepaja: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Grobinas	FK Liepaja
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.4	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:19 +5’	3.10	3.60	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Grobinas 2–1–3 FK Liepaja

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	3-1 HT 1-0	SC Grobinas
16/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Liepaja
28/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	1-1 HT 1-0	SC Grobinas
21/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Liepaja
30/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-0 HT 0-0	SC Grobinas
10/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Liepaja

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	35	28	5	2	87	24	89
2	Riga FC	35	25	8	2	95	33	83
3	FK Auda	35	21	7	7	61	38	70
4	BFC Daugavpils	35	14	9	12	42	37	51
5	FK Liepaja	35	13	9	13	49	49	48
6	SK Super Nova	35	11	6	18	35	53	39
7	FK Jelgava	35	8	8	19	37	61	32
8	SC Grobinas	35	6	11	18	27	64	29
9	Tukums 2000	35	5	10	20	44	67	25
10	Ogre United	35	4	7	24	34	85	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Grobinas	FK Liepaja
RFS	0-3 L	0-0 D
Riga FC	2-5 L	3-2 W
Ogre United	3-2 W	2-2 D
SK Super Nova	1-2 L	3-3 D
Tukums 2000	1-1 D	0-0 D
FK Jelgava	0-0 D	3-0 W
FK Auda	0-1 L	2-3 L
BFC Daugavpils	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 5 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Liepaja (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Grobinas

LLWLDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
26/10	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-4	2-5	1	6	L
17/10	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-2	9	3	W
10/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
20/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
12/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
21/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
10/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-4	1-6	1	2	L

FK Liepaja

WLWDDDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-3	4	8	D
24/10	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
18/10	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
12/10	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
19/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
11/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	11	5	D
07/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
31/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
25/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
21/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Grobinas vs FK Liepaja?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Liepaja win (46%). Probabilities: SC Grobinas 29%, draw 26%, FK Liepaja 46%.

How many goals are expected in SC Grobinas vs FK Liepaja?

The model expects 2.91 goals (SC Grobinas 1.26 · FK Liepaja 1.65), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Grobinas vs FK Liepaja?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.