Football · Latvia Virsliga · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: Tukums 2000 vs FK Auda

Team pages: Tukums 2000 · FK Auda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Tukums 20001.04

FK Auda1.88

1X2

20% 23% 57%

Tukums 2000 Draw FK Auda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tukums 2000 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDLLDL

FK Auda 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Tukums 2000 3–3 FK Auda (6 last)

FK Auda3-0Tukums 2000
Tukums 20002-1FK Auda
FK Auda2-1Tukums 2000
FK Auda0-1Tukums 2000
Tukums 20001-0FK Auda
Tukums 20002-4FK Auda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tukums 2000 1431 · FK Auda 1570

	Tukums 2000	Draw	FK Auda
Our model	20%	24%	56%
Market	21%	22%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Auda (rating 1431 vs 1570).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tukums 2000	FK Auda
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.10

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +10’	4.33	4.10	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tukums 2000 3–0–3 FK Auda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	3-0 HT 1-0	Tukums 2000
17/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Auda
26/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	2-1 HT 2-1	Tukums 2000
02/11/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	0-1 HT 0-1	Tukums 2000
10/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Auda
13/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-4 HT 1-2	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	35	28	5	2	87	24	89
2	Riga FC	35	25	8	2	95	33	83
3	FK Auda	35	21	7	7	61	38	70
4	BFC Daugavpils	35	14	9	12	42	37	51
5	FK Liepaja	35	13	9	13	49	49	48
6	SK Super Nova	35	11	6	18	35	53	39
7	FK Jelgava	35	8	8	19	37	61	32
8	SC Grobinas	35	6	11	18	27	64	29
9	Tukums 2000	35	5	10	20	44	67	25
10	Ogre United	35	4	7	24	34	85	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tukums 2000	FK Auda
BFC Daugavpils	0-2 L	1-2 L
FK Liepaja	0-0 D	3-2 W
RFS	0-2 L	1-1 D
Riga FC	0-2 L	2-2 D
SC Grobinas	1-1 D	1-0 W
SK Super Nova	0-1 L	1-1 D
Ogre United	2-1 W	4-1 W
FK Jelgava	1-4 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tukums 2000

LLLWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
24/10	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
19/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
10/10	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
20/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
10/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
05/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	4	9	W
29/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
21/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
08/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	4	L

FK Auda

WDWDWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-1	4-3	6	4	W
25/10	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-1	4-1	0	3	W
19/10	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/10	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-2	1	4	W
20/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
16/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
25/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tukums 2000 vs FK Auda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Auda win (57%). Probabilities: Tukums 2000 20%, draw 23%, FK Auda 57%.

How many goals are expected in Tukums 2000 vs FK Auda?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Tukums 2000 1.04 · FK Auda 1.88), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tukums 2000 vs FK Auda?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.