Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 07/11, 11:30

Prediction: JK Tammeka Tartu vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Team pages: JK Tammeka Tartu · Parnu JK Vaprus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

JK Tammeka Tartu1.62

Parnu JK Vaprus1.55

1X2

39% 25% 36%

JK Tammeka Tartu Draw Parnu JK Vaprus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tammeka Tartu 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Parnu JK Vaprus 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDLLDL

Head-to-head

JK Tammeka Tartu 0–2–4 Parnu JK Vaprus (6 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus5-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu0-0Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus0-0JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-4Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus8-1JK Tammeka Tartu
Parnu JK Vaprus2-1JK Tammeka Tartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tammeka Tartu 1489 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1456

	JK Tammeka Tartu	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus
Our model	39%	26%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tammeka Tartu	Parnu JK Vaprus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.4	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +2’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tammeka Tartu 0–2–4 Parnu JK Vaprus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	5-1 HT 3-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
13/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	0-0 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
18/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
16/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-4 HT 1-3	Parnu JK Vaprus
15/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	8-1 HT 4-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
17/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Tammeka Tartu

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	35	28	6	1	95	27	90
2	Paide Linnameeskond	35	19	6	10	54	41	63
3	FC Flora Tallinn	35	20	1	14	66	49	61
4	JK Nomme Kalju	35	18	6	11	59	34	60
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	35	17	2	16	50	55	53
6	Harju JK Laagri	35	15	2	18	50	52	47
7	JK Nomme United	35	12	1	22	58	80	37
8	Parnu JK Vaprus	35	10	7	18	46	69	37
9	FC Kuressaare	35	10	6	19	35	54	36
10	JK Trans Narva	35	5	5	25	26	78	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tammeka Tartu	Parnu JK Vaprus
Harju JK Laagri	2-1 W	0-2 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	0-4 L
JK Trans Narva	5-1 W	2-2 D
FC Flora Tallinn	0-2 L	2-3 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-2 L	0-1 L
JK Nomme United	4-0 W	2-4 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-3 L	2-2 D
FC Kuressaare	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tammeka Tartu (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
27/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
23/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	5-1	4	8	W
18/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
14/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
10/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
20/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
17/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
13/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	5	1	W
09/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L

Parnu JK Vaprus

WLLLDDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
28/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
23/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-4	2	6	L
18/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
13/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-2	4	3	D
20/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	1	0	L
16/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
09/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-2	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tammeka Tartu vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Tammeka Tartu win (39%). Probabilities: JK Tammeka Tartu 39%, draw 25%, Parnu JK Vaprus 36%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tammeka Tartu vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model expects 3.17 goals (JK Tammeka Tartu 1.62 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1.55), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tammeka Tartu vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.