Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 07/11, 11:30

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn · JK Nomme Kalju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

FC Levadia Tallinn2.07

JK Nomme Kalju1.27

1X2

55% 23% 22%

FC Levadia Tallinn Draw JK Nomme Kalju

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWWW

JK Nomme Kalju 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDLWWW

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn 2–3–1 JK Nomme Kalju (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju2-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn1-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-1FC Levadia Tallinn
JK Nomme Kalju2-1FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn3-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju3-3FC Levadia Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn 1637 · JK Nomme Kalju 1510

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	55%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1637 vs 1510).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Nomme Kalju
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +3’	1.61	4.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn 2–3–1 JK Nomme Kalju

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-3 HT 2-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
20/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	1-1 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju
12/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
21/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
21/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-1 HT 2-0	JK Nomme Kalju
24/05/25 Estonia Cup	JK Nomme Kalju	3-3 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	35	28	6	1	95	27	90
2	Paide Linnameeskond	35	19	6	10	54	41	63
3	FC Flora Tallinn	35	20	1	14	66	49	61
4	JK Nomme Kalju	35	18	6	11	59	34	60
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	35	17	2	16	50	55	53
6	Harju JK Laagri	35	15	2	18	50	52	47
7	JK Nomme United	35	12	1	22	58	80	37
8	Parnu JK Vaprus	35	10	7	18	46	69	37
9	FC Kuressaare	35	10	6	19	35	54	36
10	JK Trans Narva	35	5	5	25	26	78	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme United	4-3 W	0-3 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	2-1 W	3-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	2-1 W	0-1 L
FC Kuressaare	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	3-1 W	2-1 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 W	2-0 W
JK Trans Narva	1-1 D	2-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	4-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn

WWWDWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	4-3	8	3	W
27/10	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
24/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
18/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
15/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
11/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
20/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	11	4	D
17/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	6-0	9	4	W
12/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
09/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	3	2	W

JK Nomme Kalju

LLWWLDLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
28/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
25/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
17/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-3	6	6	L
13/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-2	0	4	D
10/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
20/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
12/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
08/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
05/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn win (55%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn 55%, draw 23%, JK Nomme Kalju 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model expects 3.34 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn 2.07 · JK Nomme Kalju 1.27), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.