Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 07/11, 11:30

Prediction: FC Kuressaare vs JK Nomme United

Team pages: FC Kuressaare · JK Nomme United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

FC Kuressaare1.6

JK Nomme United1.69

1X2

36% 25% 40%

FC Kuressaare Draw JK Nomme United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kuressaare 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWLLDL

JK Nomme United 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWWWL

Head-to-head

FC Kuressaare 3–1–2 JK Nomme United (6 last)

JK Nomme United3-2FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare2-1JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United2-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare3-3JK Nomme United
FC Kuressaare2-1JK Nomme United
FC Kuressaare4-1JK Nomme United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kuressaare 1476 · JK Nomme United 1488

	FC Kuressaare	Draw	JK Nomme United
Our model	35%	25%	39%
Market	36%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Kuressaare: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kuressaare	JK Nomme United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +2’	2.50	3.60	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kuressaare 3–1–2 JK Nomme United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	3-2 HT 0-1	FC Kuressaare
20/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	2-1 HT 2-0	JK Nomme United
25/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
07/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Kuressaare	3-3 HT 1-0	JK Nomme United
19/01/25 Europe Friendlies	FC Kuressaare	2-1 HT 2-1	JK Nomme United
28/09/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	4-1 HT 0-0	JK Nomme United

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	35	28	6	1	95	27	90
2	Paide Linnameeskond	35	19	6	10	54	41	63
3	FC Flora Tallinn	35	20	1	14	66	49	61
4	JK Nomme Kalju	35	18	6	11	59	34	60
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	35	17	2	16	50	55	53
6	Harju JK Laagri	35	15	2	18	50	52	47
7	JK Nomme United	35	12	1	22	58	80	37
8	Parnu JK Vaprus	35	10	7	18	46	69	37
9	FC Kuressaare	35	10	6	19	35	54	36
10	JK Trans Narva	35	5	5	25	26	78	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kuressaare	JK Nomme United
JK Nomme Kalju	0-1 L	3-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	1-1 D	4-2 W
Paide Linnameeskond	0-1 L	1-3 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-2 L	3-4 L
JK Trans Narva	1-0 W	1-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	2-0 W	2-3 L
Harju JK Laagri	0-0 D	0-2 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	1-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Kuressaare (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kuressaare

WLLDWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
28/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
24/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
18/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
14/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
11/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
13/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	6	1	L
09/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
05/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W

JK Nomme United

LWLLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	3-4	3	3	L
27/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
23/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-2	11	6	W
17/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	3-0	7	6	W
13/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
19/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
12/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	3	1	L
08/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
05/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kuressaare vs JK Nomme United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Nomme United win (40%). Probabilities: FC Kuressaare 36%, draw 25%, JK Nomme United 40%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kuressaare vs JK Nomme United?

The model expects 3.29 goals (FC Kuressaare 1.6 · JK Nomme United 1.69), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kuressaare vs JK Nomme United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.