Football · Brazil Serie B · 07/10, 00:30

Prediction: Sport Recife vs Sao Bernardo SP

Team pages: Sport Recife · Sao Bernardo SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Sport Recife1.32

Sao Bernardo SP0.91

1X2

46% 29% 25%

Sport Recife Draw Sao Bernardo SP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sport Recife 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWLWLW

Sao Bernardo SP 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Sport Recife 0–1–0 Sao Bernardo SP (1 last)

Sao Bernardo SP0-0Sport Recife

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sport Recife 1516 · Sao Bernardo SP 1542

	Sport Recife	Draw	Sao Bernardo SP
Our model	45%	31%	24%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sport Recife	Sao Bernardo SP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.14 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:12 +5’	2.00	3.25	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +43’	1.78	3.64	4.28
02:25 +81’	1.82▲	3.64	4.27▼
04:04 +136’	1.85▲	3.60▼	4.14▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Recife 0–1–0 Sao Bernardo SP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Sao Bernardo SP	0-0 HT 0-0	Sport Recife

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	31	16	8	7	35	19	56
2	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
3	Gremio Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52	27	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33	27	53
5	Fortaleza	30	14	10	6	35	26	52
6	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	46	44	48
8	Operario PR	31	13	9	9	43	41	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	42	33	47
10	Sao Bernardo SP	31	12	9	10	43	32	45
11	Cuiaba	30	10	13	7	30	25	43
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	30	39	42
13	Athletic Club MG	31	10	12	9	37	35	42
14	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	30	9	8	13	34	36	35
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30	41	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	39	45	28
19	America MG	30	4	5	21	21	50	17
20	Ponte Preta	30	3	4	23	17	64	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sport Recife	Sao Bernardo SP
Nautico	1-3 L	1-1 D
CRB	1-2 L	3-1 W
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	2-0 W
Gremio Novorizontino	1-2 L	0-0 D
America MG	3-0 W	2-0 W
Londrina	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Bernardo SP (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sport Recife

WLWLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	9	2	L
19/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
11/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
05/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
29/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	5	0	W
20/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
15/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	1	2	W

Sao Bernardo SP

LDDLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
19/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
15/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
11/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
06/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
29/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
23/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
20/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	12	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sport Recife vs Sao Bernardo SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Recife win (46%). Probabilities: Sport Recife 46%, draw 29%, Sao Bernardo SP 25%.

How many goals are expected in Sport Recife vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Sport Recife 1.32 · Sao Bernardo SP 0.91), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.