Football · Brazil Serie B · 13/10, 00:00
Prediction: Gremio Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Team pages: Gremio Novorizontino · Ponte Preta
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.8Total
Gremio Novorizontino2.9
Ponte Preta0.9
1X2
Gremio Novorizontino
Draw
Ponte Preta
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Gremio Novorizontino
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Ponte Preta
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gremio Novorizontino
3–1–2
Ponte Preta
(6 last)
- Ponte Preta0-2Gremio Novorizontino
- Gremio Novorizontino0-1Ponte Preta
- Gremio Novorizontino2-1Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta1-0Gremio Novorizontino
- Ponte Preta1-1Gremio Novorizontino
- Gremio Novorizontino2-0Ponte Preta
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gremio Novorizontino 1584 · Ponte Preta 1387
| Gremio Novorizontino | Draw | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 87% | 10% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio Novorizontino (rating 1584 vs 1387).
- H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gremio Novorizontino | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.1 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 7.5 | 1.1 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio Novorizontino 3–1–2 Ponte Preta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Gremio Novorizontino |
| 15/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Gremio Novorizontino | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ponte Preta |
| 01/10/24 Brazil Serie B | Gremio Novorizontino | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Ponte Preta |
| 15/06/24 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gremio Novorizontino |
| 03/03/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Ponte Preta | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gremio Novorizontino |
| 28/10/23 Brazil Serie B | Gremio Novorizontino | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Ponte Preta |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EC Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 58 |
| 3 | Gremio Novorizontino | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 54 | 27 | 57 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 56 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 28 | 53 |
| 6 | Atletico GO | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 40 | 30 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 45 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 50 |
| 9 | Operario PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 47 |
| 11 | Goias | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 32 | 40 | 45 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo SP | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44 | 34 | 45 |
| 13 | Nautico | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 40 | 42 |
| 14 | Ceara | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 39 | 42 |
| 15 | Athletic Club MG | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 38 | 38 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 43 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 40 | 47 | 28 |
| 19 | America MG | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 53 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 68 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gremio Novorizontino | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| Sao Bernardo SP | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Cuiaba | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Botafogo SP | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Avai | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Sport Recife | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| America MG | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gremio Novorizontino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 02/10 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 10/09 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 25/08 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
Ponte Preta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 03/10 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 30/09 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/09 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
0-3 | 0-6 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 20/08 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gremio Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio Novorizontino win (82%). Probabilities: Gremio Novorizontino 82%, draw 12%, Ponte Preta 6%.
How many goals are expected in Gremio Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?
The model expects 3.8 goals (Gremio Novorizontino 2.9 · Ponte Preta 0.9), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Gremio Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.