Football · Brazil Serie B · 13/10, 00:30

Prediction: Criciuma vs America MG

Team pages: Criciuma · America MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Criciuma1.91

America MG0.51

1X2

70% 21% 8%

Criciuma Draw America MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Criciuma 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLWWL

America MG 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Criciuma 2–3–1 America MG (6 last)

America MG0-1Criciuma
Criciuma2-1America MG
America MG1-1Criciuma
Criciuma2-2America MG
America MG0-0Criciuma
America MG2-1Criciuma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Criciuma 1488 · America MG 1411

	Criciuma	Draw	America MG
Our model	70%	22%	8%
Market	71%	21%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Criciuma (rating 1488 vs 1411).
H2H favours Criciuma: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Criciuma	America MG
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.5	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.02

2 (+1.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33
X	4.10 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.89 ★
2	7.50 → 11.00▲	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:23 +6’	1.42	4.10	7.50
09:01 +3’	1.30▼	4.50▲	11.00▲
02:08 +4’	1.33▲	4.50	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:44 +164’	1.31	4.84	10.53
12:46 +83’	1.31▼	4.89▲	10.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Criciuma 2–3–1 America MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/26 Brazil Serie B	America MG	0-1 HT 0-1	Criciuma
12/10/25 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	2-1 HT 0-0	America MG
21/06/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-1 HT 1-1	Criciuma
10/06/21 Copa do Brasil	Criciuma	2-2 HT 1-1	America MG
03/06/21 Copa do Brasil	America MG	0-0 HT 0-0	Criciuma
11/09/19 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-1 HT 2-0	Criciuma

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	32	17	8	7	37	19	59
2	Vila Nova	32	17	7	8	44	31	58
3	Gremio Novorizontino	32	16	9	7	54	27	57
4	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37	27	56
5	Criciuma	32	15	8	9	33	28	53
6	Atletico GO	32	14	10	8	40	30	52
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	49	45	51
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44	34	50
9	Operario PR	32	13	9	10	44	43	48
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32	25	47
11	Goias	32	13	6	13	32	40	45
12	Sao Bernardo SP	32	12	9	11	44	34	45
13	Nautico	32	11	9	12	39	40	42
14	Ceara	32	11	9	12	35	39	42
15	Athletic Club MG	32	10	12	10	38	37	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36	38	38
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32	43	33
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40	47	28
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21	53	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	3	4	25	17	68	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Criciuma	America MG
Atletico GO	0-4 L	0-2 L
EC Juventude	0-2 L	0-1 L
CRB	1-2 L	1-3 L
Fortaleza	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: America MG (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Criciuma

DLLWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
03/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
27/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-0	5	7	W
23/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	17	5	L
13/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-4	5	6	L
09/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	10	7	L
05/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
20/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	3	D

America MG

LLWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
03/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
19/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
10/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
30/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
25/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	10	0	L
21/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Criciuma vs America MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Criciuma win (70%). Probabilities: Criciuma 70%, draw 21%, America MG 8%.

How many goals are expected in Criciuma vs America MG?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Criciuma 1.91 · America MG 0.51), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Criciuma vs America MG?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.