Football · USA MLS · 02/11, 02:30

Prediction: Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United

Team pages: Los Angeles FC · Minnesota United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Los Angeles FC2.07

Minnesota United1.23

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Los Angeles FC Draw Minnesota United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Los Angeles FC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLDWDD

Minnesota United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDWDW

Head-to-head

Los Angeles FC 5–1 Minnesota United (6 last)

Minnesota United0-1Los Angeles FC
Minnesota United0-1Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC1-0Minnesota United
Los Angeles FC2-0Minnesota United
Minnesota United2-0Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC5-1Minnesota United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Los Angeles FC 1514 · Minnesota United 1462

	Los Angeles FC	Draw	Minnesota United
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Los Angeles FC (rating 1514 vs 1462).
H2H favours Los Angeles FC: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Los Angeles FC	Minnesota United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6.9	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.20

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.69
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	4.20 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.43 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:27 +5’	1.67	4.10	4.20
14:34 +22’	1.67	4.20▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:42 +33’	1.68	4.15	4.39
02:50 +32’	1.69▲	4.21▲	4.46▲
05:26 +52’	1.69▼	4.18▼	4.43▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Los Angeles FC 5–0–1 Minnesota United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 USA MLS	Minnesota United	0-1 HT 0-1	Los Angeles FC
17/07/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	0-1 HT 0-1	Los Angeles FC
22/02/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Minnesota United
30/05/24 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Minnesota United
17/03/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	2-0 HT 1-0	Los Angeles FC
05/10/23 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	5-1 HT 3-1	Minnesota United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	32	17	7	8	67	33	58
2	FC Dallas	32	15	9	8	58	49	54
3	St. Louis City SC	32	14	9	9	58	47	51
4	Houston Dynamo	32	14	9	9	42	39	51
5	San Jose Earthquakes	32	13	10	9	54	47	49
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	47
7	Colorado Rapids	32	12	7	13	44	43	43
8	Seattle Sounders	32	11	10	11	41	40	43
9	Real Salt Lake	32	12	6	14	50	49	42
10	LA Galaxy	32	10	11	11	45	54	41
11	Portland Timbers	32	11	7	14	57	60	40
12	Minnesota United	32	9	11	12	50	56	38
13	San Diego FC	32	8	11	13	56	62	35
14	Austin FC	32	8	10	14	41	59	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	32	6	4	22	38	80	22

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Los Angeles FC	Minnesota United
LA Galaxy	2-2 D	2-3 L
FC Dallas	0-1 L	1-2 L
Sporting Kansas City	1-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Los Angeles FC

DDWLDLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	2-2	12	2	D
18/10	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
15/10	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	3-1	7	0	W
11/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
27/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
20/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
13/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	1-3	13	4	L
10/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
06/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
30/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	0	D

Minnesota United

LLLLLDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	4	W
25/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
17/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	6	4	W
15/10	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
11/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
27/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
20/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
13/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	2-4	5	3	L
10/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
06/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-3	4-5	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Los Angeles FC win (56%). Probabilities: Los Angeles FC 56%, draw 23%, Minnesota United 21%.

How many goals are expected in Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Los Angeles FC 2.07 · Minnesota United 1.23), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.