Football · Brazil Serie B · 07/10, 01:30

Prediction: Goias vs Athletic Club MG

Team pages: Goias · Athletic Club MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Goias1.63

Athletic Club MG0.85

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Goias Draw Athletic Club MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Goias 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Athletic Club MG 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWDDL

Head-to-head

Goias 0–2–1 Athletic Club MG (3 last)

Athletic Club MG1-1Goias
Athletic Club MG1-1Goias
Goias1-2Athletic Club MG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Goias 1469 · Athletic Club MG 1483

	Goias	Draw	Athletic Club MG
Our model	55%	27%	18%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Goias	Athletic Club MG
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.5	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.73
X	3.25 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	4.75 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.28 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:09 +8’	1.75	3.25	4.75
04:20 +3’	1.70▼	3.60▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:17 +38’	1.65	3.50	5.51
03:13 +49’	1.67▲	3.54▲	5.62▲
07:43 +17’	1.75▲	3.41▼	5.17▼
02:09 +98’	1.68▼	3.51▲	5.56▲
11:59 +178’	1.73▲	3.43▼	5.28▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Goias 0–2–1 Athletic Club MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	1-1 HT 0-1	Goias
11/10/25 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	1-1 HT 1-0	Goias
24/06/25 Brazil Serie B	Goias	1-2 HT 0-1	Athletic Club MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	31	17	6	8	44	31	57
2	EC Juventude	31	16	8	7	35	19	56
3	Gremio Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52	27	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33	27	53
5	Fortaleza	31	14	11	6	36	27	53
6	Atletico GO	31	14	10	7	39	27	52
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	46	44	48
8	Operario PR	31	13	9	9	43	41	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	42	33	47
10	Cuiaba	31	11	13	7	32	25	46
11	Sao Bernardo SP	31	12	9	10	43	32	45
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	30	39	42
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39	38	42
14	Athletic Club MG	31	10	12	9	37	35	42
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34	39	39
16	Botafogo SP	31	9	8	14	34	37	35
17	Avai	31	8	6	17	30	42	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	39	45	28
19	America MG	31	4	5	22	21	52	17
20	Ponte Preta	31	3	4	24	17	66	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Goias	Athletic Club MG
Gremio Novorizontino	0-3 L	1-4 L
Botafogo SP	3-1 W	1-1 D
Vila Nova	0-2 L	5-0 W
Fortaleza	0-1 L	2-2 D
Cuiaba	1-1 D	0-3 L
EC Juventude	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Club MG (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Goias

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
26/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
20/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
15/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
11/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
05/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
29/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
22/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
19/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
15/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	7	L

Athletic Club MG

WLLLWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
27/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	0	D
19/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
13/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
09/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	3-0	5-0	2	5	W
29/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
25/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
21/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
16/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Goias vs Athletic Club MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Goias win (55%). Probabilities: Goias 55%, draw 26%, Athletic Club MG 19%.

How many goals are expected in Goias vs Athletic Club MG?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Goias 1.63 · Athletic Club MG 0.85), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Goias vs Athletic Club MG?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.