Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/10, 01:30

Prediction: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba

Team pages: Vila Nova · Cuiaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Vila Nova1.3

Cuiaba0.73

1X2

49% 30% 20%

Vila Nova Draw Cuiaba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Vila Nova 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWDWW

Cuiaba 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWDWL

Head-to-head

Vila Nova 1–2–3 Cuiaba (6 last)

Cuiaba1-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova2-2Cuiaba
Cuiaba1-0Vila Nova
Cuiaba4-2Vila Nova
Vila Nova2-0Cuiaba
Cuiaba1-1Vila Nova

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vila Nova 1541 · Cuiaba 1563

	Vila Nova	Draw	Cuiaba
Our model	49%	31%	20%
Market	50%	30%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cuiaba: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vila Nova	Cuiaba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.1	1.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +6’	1.85	3.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vila Nova 1–2–3 Cuiaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	1-0 HT 0-0	Vila Nova
25/09/25 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-2 HT 0-0	Cuiaba
27/05/25 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	1-0 HT 1-0	Vila Nova
12/05/24 Brazil Copa Verde	Cuiaba	4-2 HT 3-0	Vila Nova
18/04/24 Brazil Copa Verde	Vila Nova	2-0 HT 1-0	Cuiaba
23/03/23 Brazil Copa Verde	Cuiaba	1-1 HT 1-0	Vila Nova

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	31	16	8	7	35	19	56
2	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
3	Gremio Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52	27	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33	27	53
5	Fortaleza	30	14	10	6	35	26	52
6	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	46	44	48
8	Operario PR	31	13	9	9	43	41	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	42	33	47
10	Sao Bernardo SP	31	12	9	10	43	32	45
11	Cuiaba	30	10	13	7	30	25	43
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	30	39	42
13	Athletic Club MG	31	10	12	9	37	35	42
14	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	30	9	8	13	34	36	35
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30	41	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	39	45	28
19	America MG	30	4	5	21	21	50	17
20	Ponte Preta	30	3	4	23	17	64	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vila Nova	Cuiaba
Goias	2-0 W	1-1 D
Athletic Club MG	0-5 L	3-0 W
Ceara	2-0 W	3-1 W
Operario PR	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cuiaba (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vila Nova

LWWDWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
15/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
11/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-5	2	5	L
30/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
23/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	9	3	W
15/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
08/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	15	6	L

Cuiaba

DWWDWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
22/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
13/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
09/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
05/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
09/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vila Nova win (49%). Probabilities: Vila Nova 49%, draw 30%, Cuiaba 20%.

How many goals are expected in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Vila Nova 1.3 · Cuiaba 0.73), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.