Football · Brazil Serie B · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Avai vs Ceara

Team pages: Avai · Ceara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Avai1.16

Ceara1.22

1X2

33% 30% 36%

Avai Draw Ceara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Avai 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLLLDL

Ceara 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLDWD

Head-to-head

Avai 2–1–3 Ceara (6 last)

Ceara2-1Avai
Ceara2-0Avai
Avai0-1Ceara
Avai1-0Ceara
Ceara0-0Avai
Avai2-0Ceara

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ceara (rating 1447 vs 1510).
H2H favours Ceara: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avai	Ceara
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	1.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.01

Under 2.251.79

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:30

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.71 → 2.71	Pinn 2.71
X	3.11 → 3.11	Pinn 3.11
2	2.67 → 2.67	Pinn 2.67

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +18’	2.71	3.11	2.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avai 2–1–3 Ceara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	2-1 HT 2-0	Avai
03/11/24 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	2-0 HT 0-0	Avai
20/07/24 Brazil Serie B	Avai	0-1 HT 0-0	Ceara
22/10/23 Brazil Serie B	Avai	1-0 HT 0-0	Ceara
29/06/23 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	0-0 HT 0-0	Avai
09/11/22 Brazil Serie A	Avai	2-0 HT 0-0	Ceara

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
2	Gremio Novorizontino	30	14	9	7	49	27	51
3	Fortaleza	29	14	9	6	33	24	51
4	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
5	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
6	Operario PR	30	13	9	8	43	38	48
7	Criciuma	29	13	8	8	28	27	47
8	CRB	29	13	6	10	42	41	45
9	Sport Recife	30	11	11	8	40	32	44
10	Cuiaba	29	10	13	6	30	22	43
11	Goias	30	12	6	12	30	36	42
12	Sao Bernardo SP	30	11	9	10	40	31	42
13	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
14	Athletic Club MG	29	10	11	8	34	31	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32	36	32
17	Avai	29	8	6	15	30	38	30
18	Londrina	30	7	7	16	39	43	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	29	3	4	22	17	62	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avai	Ceara
Vila Nova	1-1 D	0-2 L
Fortaleza	0-1 L	1-1 D
Gremio Novorizontino	1-3 L	2-1 W
Atletico GO	0-1 L	1-2 L
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	2-0 W
Sport Recife	2-1 W	2-1 W
Operario PR	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avai

LLWWWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	8	L
15/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
10/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
05/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-3	2	3	L
30/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
23/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
20/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
16/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	0	4	W
12/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	14	4	L
29/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Ceara

WLLWLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
19/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	2	8	W
13/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
10/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
05/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	9	2	W
30/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
22/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
08/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avai vs Ceara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ceara win (36%). Probabilities: Avai 33%, draw 30%, Ceara 36%.

How many goals are expected in Avai vs Ceara?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Avai 1.16 · Ceara 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avai vs Ceara?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.