Football · USA MLS · 07/11, 22:00

Prediction: FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC

Team pages: FC Cincinnati · Nashville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

FC Cincinnati1.7

Nashville SC1.52

1X2

41% 25% 34%

FC Cincinnati Draw Nashville SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cincinnati 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLWWDW

Nashville SC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWWDWD

Head-to-head

FC Cincinnati 2–2–2 Nashville SC (6 last)

Nashville SC4-0FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati2-1Nashville SC
Nashville SC1-2FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC2-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati0-2Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati1-1Nashville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cincinnati 1498 · Nashville SC 1573

	FC Cincinnati	Draw	Nashville SC
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	42%	24%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nashville SC (rating 1498 vs 1573).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cincinnati	Nashville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.8	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.90

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.47 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:18 +2’	2.25	3.90	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:42 +36’	2.47	3.78	2.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati 2–2–2 Nashville SC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 USA MLS	Nashville SC	4-0 HT 1-0	FC Cincinnati
14/09/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	2-1 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
30/03/25 USA MLS	Nashville SC	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Cincinnati
22/09/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	2-2 HT 2-1	FC Cincinnati
30/05/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	0-2 HT 0-2	Nashville SC
05/08/23 Leagues Cup	FC Cincinnati	1-1 HT 0-0	Nashville SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	32	21	8	3	66	23	71
2	New England Revolution	32	18	4	10	54	44	58
3	Inter Miami CF	32	15	11	6	75	55	56
4	Chicago Fire	33	16	7	10	61	50	55
5	Charlotte FC	33	15	8	10	63	48	53
6	Philadelphia Union	33	13	8	12	62	51	47
7	FC Cincinnati	33	12	10	11	67	73	46
8	Columbus Crew	33	13	5	15	55	49	44
9	Orlando City SC	33	12	7	14	62	78	43
10	New York Red Bulls	32	11	6	15	43	59	39
11	New York City FC	33	9	12	12	48	45	39
12	Toronto FC	32	9	12	11	50	60	39
13	DC United	33	7	12	14	39	60	33
14	Atlanta United	32	8	6	18	40	56	30
15	CF Montreal	33	6	8	19	37	67	26

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cincinnati	Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union	1-0 W	0-0 D
Inter Miami CF	2-2 D	2-2 D
CF Montreal	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cincinnati

DDLWLLWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
29/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
25/10	DC United USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/10	DC United USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
18/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
15/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-2	2-3	12	4	L
11/10	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
27/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
20/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	7	0	D
13/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	12	3	D

Nashville SC

DLDWWWWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
24/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
18/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
15/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-0	4-0	7	0	W
11/10	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
27/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-0	2-0	9	1	W
20/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
13/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
10/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	8	1	L
05/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cincinnati win (41%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati 41%, draw 25%, Nashville SC 34%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC?

The model expects 3.22 goals (FC Cincinnati 1.7 · Nashville SC 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.