Football · Finland Kolmonen · 28/08, 17:00

Prediction: KeuPa vs JPS

Team pages: KeuPa · JPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4Total

KeuPa1.35

JPS2.66

1X2

17% 17% 65%

KeuPa Draw JPS

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

KeuPa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWDWWW

JPS 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDDWWW

Head-to-head

KeuPa 0–1–2 JPS (3 last)

JPS3-0KeuPa
KeuPa3-3JPS
JPS3-1KeuPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KeuPa 1545 · JPS 1599

	KeuPa	Draw	JPS
Our model	17%	18%	65%
Market	18%	16%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 4 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JPS (rating 1545 vs 1599).
H2H favours JPS: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KeuPa	JPS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	3.4 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	1.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	63/38/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.5 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X5.50

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.98

2 (-1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:36 +14’	5.00	5.50	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KeuPa 0–1–2 JPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	JPS	3-0 HT 2-0	KeuPa
08/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	KeuPa	3-3	JPS
20/06/23 Finland Kolmonen	JPS	3-1 HT 3-0	KeuPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JPS	14	10	4	0	49	9	34
2	FC Metso	15	9	3	3	44	29	30
3	FCJ Blackbird	15	7	4	4	40	27	25
4	KeuPa	14	6	5	3	29	25	23
5	JJK/2	14	5	1	8	23	44	16
6	Savon Pallo	15	4	2	9	30	36	14
7	FC Vaajakoski II	16	4	1	11	23	56	13
8	Komeetat	15	3	2	10	18	30	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KeuPa	JPS
JJK/2	4-0 W	8-0 W
FCJ Blackbird	3-2 W	1-1 D
Komeetat	1-0 W	1-1 D
Savon Pallo	2-2 D	2-1 W
FC Vaajakoski II	5-1 W	8-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: JPS (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KeuPa

WLLLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	2	0	W
14/08	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-2	6	2	W
07/08	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/07	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
24/07	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	5-1	3	1	W
19/07	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
24/06	JPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	3	0	L
17/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	2	L
12/06	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
05/06	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	4	6	W

JPS

DWWWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
12/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	3-0	8-0	8	0	W
05/08	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	8-0	–	–	W
29/07	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
17/07	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
24/06	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	8	0	W
17/06	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	11	0	W
02/06	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	5	0	W
29/05	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KeuPa vs JPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JPS win (65%). Probabilities: KeuPa 17%, draw 17%, JPS 65%.

How many goals are expected in KeuPa vs JPS?

The model expects 4 goals (KeuPa 1.35 · JPS 2.66), with a 55% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KeuPa vs JPS?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.